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2023光伏的竞争

返回列表 来源: 阿尔法工场研究院 发布日期: 2022.10.25 浏览次数:
光伏进入前所未有的“竞合时代”

产业链同一环节竞争加剧,相互踩踏事件密集发生。

近一年半的时间,供应链剧烈博弈下,包括晶科、隆基、中环、天合、阿特斯、东方日升、正泰等等龙头企业均砸下几十亿数百亿,狂奔垂直一体化。

有的“主动”,有的“被动”,但整体而言,一体化成为事实,并深刻影响未来竞局。

通常,一体化无非两种选择,一是风险控制型,一是利益型。所谓风险控制型,就是我投资这个环节未必能赚钱,但是它可以规避我产业链的风险。

另一种就是利益型,就是我在这个环节就是能做得比别人好,能做到第一,能产生社会价值,那我为什么不做?

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稍微长远来看,“一体化”带来的结果会如何?

其一,很多企业从头到脚一样粗,不同产业链的产能加速膨胀,加速不同环节的产能过剩。

其二,每个企业在产业链不同环节都想争第一,争前三,竞争加剧。

其三,人人守护供应链护城河,不同环节彼此乱战、彼此踩踏、残酷竞争必然出现;其四,随着竞争格局的动态变化,“一体化”部分环节竞争力缺失,可能成为一些企业的负担,影响其整体竞争力。

如何看待过剩下的竞争?不久前,隆基股份创始人、总裁李振国在与复旦《管理视野》交流时表示:就上下供应链来说,阶段性的挑战会有一些,比如去年的玻璃和今年的多晶硅料短缺。

但是从长期来说,凡是人类可以制造的东西,短缺的情况一定是阶段性出现的,过剩才会是常态化。所以,隆基这么多年一直打造的是过剩状态下的竞争力。

“过剩状态下我们怎么生存发展,这是我们更关注的事情。但凡人类能制造出来的产品,都是过剩的,这是恒定的规律。除非垄断——明明可以过剩的,我就不过剩,我要垄断。这个是不符合社会利益的。”

四,注意,央企国企不只是电站开发的绝对主力,央国企还正在加速进入光伏制造环节,这必然加大制造端争夺的激烈程度。同时,越来越多跨界者进入光伏领域,冲击固有竞争格局。

我们在此前的内容中分析过,央企和地方国资在电站开发领域可谓突飞猛进,并在这一环节占据了绝对主力的位置。但现在需要进一步注意的是,国资在光伏制造领域的加速布局,这必然冲击制造环节的竞争格局。

最近的消息是,11月26日,华能集团广西分公司与中南光电签订合作协议,拟投光伏组件、逆变器、铝边框、支架等智能化生产线,打造新能源光伏发电装备智能科技产业园。

11月21日,华能江苏能源开发有限公司拟联合企业共投10GW高效光伏电池+10GW高效组件。

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就设备保供,除了自投或入股模式外,央国企与光伏制造企业“抱团”正呈井喷之势。

据北极星太阳能光伏网的统计,仅2021年,隆基、天合、晶澳、晶科、阳光电源、华为等18家制造企业与央国企签订战略合作,合作内容涵盖设备供应、光伏项目合作开发等。

此外,过去一年半的时间,一些与光伏“八竿子打不着”的企业,开始跨界光伏。

甚至,这些“跨界”者中,甚至出现了吉利集团等整车制造企业。根据能源一号的最新统计,今年以来总计有73家的外部行业公司正大踏步地进入光伏新能源板块。

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根据能源一号的梳理分析:大量公司扎堆跨界进入了分布式产业中。其中有一些著名的上市公司及集团企业如建发股份、龙元建设、京东、顺丰控股、中材国际等等。

五.光伏十四五争什么?除了国际市场的拓展与竞争,国内市场重点争“整县推进”引领下的分布式空间;争夺“大基地”规划引领下的大型地面电站。面对新的竞争,企业准备好了吗?

从投资主体看,“整县推进”引领下的分布式和“大基地”规划引领下的大型地面电站的投资者,都是以央企国企为主力。

对于民营企业为主的制造企业而言,以什么样的产品和解决方案获得获得中标,如何与央国企形成全新的合作关系,如何发挥各自优势形成互补。

更具体,如何以自身产品与解决方案获取更多的项目标的?这对各路光伏企业而言,


Photovoltaic has entered an unprecedented "era of competition and cooperation"  

 

Competition at the same link in the industrial chain has intensified, and stampedes have occurred in large numbers.  

 

In the past one and a half years, leading enterprises such as Jinkoko, Longji, Zhonghuan, TRW, Solar, Dongfang Risheng, Chint and so on have invested billions of dollars and rushed toward vertical integration under the intense game of supply chain.  

 

Some are "active", some are "passive", but as a whole, integration becomes a reality and profoundly affects the future of the competition.  

 

Generally, there are no more than two options for integration, one is risk control, the other is benefit.  The so-called risk control type is that I invest in this link may not be able to make money, but it can avoid the risk of my industrial chain.  

 

The other is the benefit type, that is, I can do better than others in this link, can be the first, can generate social value, so why don't I do it?  

 

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In the slightly longer term, what are the results of "integration"?  

 

First, many enterprises are as thick from head to toe, accelerating the expansion of capacity in different industrial chains and accelerating overcapacity in different links.  

 

Second, every enterprise in different links of the industrial chain wants to fight for the first place, fight for the top three, competition intensifies.  

 

Third, everyone protects the moat of the supply chain, and different links fight with each other, tread on each other, and cruel competition is bound to emerge.   Fourthly, with the dynamic change of competition pattern, the lack of competitiveness of some links of "integration" may become a burden for some enterprises and affect their overall competitiveness.  

 

How to view the competition under surplus?  Not long ago, Li Zhenguo, the founder and president of Longji Shares, said in an exchange with Fudan's "Management Vision" : in terms of the upper and lower supply chain, there will be some challenges in stages, such as last year's glass and this year's polysilicon material shortage.  

 

But in the long run, whatever human beings can produce, the shortage situation must appear in stages, the surplus will be normal.  Therefore, what Longi has been building for so many years is the competitiveness in the surplus state.  

 

"How do we survive in surplus? That's what we're more focused on.  As long as human beings can produce products, are surplus, this is a constant law.  Unless monopoly - clearly can surplus, I will not surplus, I want to monopolize.  This is not in the interest of society."  

 

Four, note that central state-owned enterprises are not only the absolute force of power station development, central enterprises are also accelerating into the photovoltaic manufacturing link, which will inevitably increase the intensity of competition in the manufacturing end.   At the same time, more and more crossovers enter the photovoltaic field, impacting the inherent competition pattern.  

 

As we have analyzed in the previous content, central enterprises and local state assets have made rapid progress in the field of power plant development, and occupy the absolute main position in this link.   But now we need to pay further attention to the accelerated layout of state assets in the field of photovoltaic manufacturing, which is bound to impact the competitive pattern of manufacturing links.  

 

The latest news is that on November 26, Guangxi Branch of Huaneng Group signed a cooperation agreement with Zhongnan Optoelectronics to invest in intelligent production lines such as photovoltaic modules, inverters, aluminum frames and brackets, and to build an intelligent technology industrial park of new energy photovoltaic power generation equipment.  

 

On November 21, Huaneng Jiangsu Energy Development Co., Ltd. planned to invest a total of 10GW high-efficiency photovoltaic cells +10GW high-efficiency modules.  

 

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On the equipment supply, in addition to self-investment or investment mode, central state-owned enterprises and photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises "group" is a blowout.  

 

According to the statistics of Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network, only in 2021, 18 manufacturing enterprises such as Longji, Trina, JA, Jinko, Sun Power and Huawei signed strategic cooperation with central state-owned enterprises, covering equipment supply, photovoltaic project cooperation and development.  

 

In addition, over the past year and a half, some companies that have nothing to do with PV have started to cross over into PV.  

 

Even, these "crossover", even appeared Geely Group and other vehicle manufacturing enterprises. According to the latest statistics of Energy One, a total of 73 external industry companies are stepping into the photovoltaic new energy sector this year.  

 

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According to Energy One's analysis, a large number of companies have crossed over into the distributed industry.  There are some famous listed companies and group enterprises such as C&D, Longyuan Construction, Jingdong, SF Holding, Sinoma International and so on.  

 

Five. Photovoltaic 14 or 15 for what?  In addition to the expansion and competition of the international market, the domestic market focuses on the distributed space led by the "promotion of the whole county";  The competition for large ground power stations led by the "big base" plan.  Are companies ready for the new competition?  

 

From the perspective of investment subjects, the investors of large-scale ground power stations under the guidance of the "whole county promotion" and the "large base" planning are all state-owned enterprises as the main force.  

 

For manufacturing enterprises mainly owned by private enterprises, what kind of products and solutions to win the bidding, how to form a new cooperative relationship with central state-owned enterprises, and how to play their respective advantages to complement each other.  

 

More specifically, how to obtain more project targets with your own products and solutions?  For PV companies, 

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