三季报净利润预增1倍多，股价却大跌8.6%，被誉为白马股的隆基股份（601012.SH）令投资者感到费解。“事出反常必有妖”，10月16日当天隆基股份市值单日蒸发超86亿元，总成交量达到35.39亿元，如此之高的成交量，与机构投资者的“倒手”不无关联。然而，此前一直保持高速增长的隆基股份，为何遭到投资者的看空？全球单晶硅之王，能否继续强势？
      诡异暴跌： 10月15日晚间，隆基股份披露了2019年三季度业绩预告，公司今年前三季度预计实现归母净利润34.02亿-35.02亿元，同比增长101%-107%。其中，隆基股份第三季度的单季归母净利润同比增长就高达263%-289%，业绩表现颇为亮眼。 然而诡异的是，公司股价在10月16日却遭到资金大规模“抛盘”，当天成交量高达35.39亿元。有分析认为，在光伏政策和补贴即将退坡时，公司三季度抢装带来的高增长利润，难以持续。整个光伏行业面临政策变动带来不确定性，是公司股价大跌的一大原因。
       对于业绩高增长，公司解释称，报告期内，一方面在海外市场需求快速增长的拉动下，公司单晶硅片和组件销量同比大幅增长，组件产品海外销售占比快速提升，销售区域进一步扩大，海外收入同比增长明显；另一方面受益于技术工艺水平提升，公司生产成本持续下降。 换句话说，隆基股份业绩高增长，主要来源于海外市场。对于国内市场，公司并未有所提及。值得注意的是，对于国内市场，市场此前普遍看好。根据此前国家能源局的预测，国内2019全年光伏预计新增装机量40GW-45GW，对应下半年新增装机28.6GW-33.6GW，环比上半年大幅增长1.51倍-1.95倍，同比2018年大幅增长43%-68%。投资者对于今年下半年国内光伏市场的高预期也源自于此。 然而，从实际装机情况来看，国内市场的需求高峰期并未在三季度到来。中电联的统计显示，8月光伏新增发电容量1.49GW，同比下降15%，1-8月光伏新增发电容量14.95GW，同比降幅更是达到55%。行业表现与市场预期明显错位，因此投资者用实际行动，对隆基股份前三季度的表现提出了“质疑”。
       作为全球单晶硅龙头，隆基股份近年来频频跑马圈地，不断扩大投资规模。 10月15日公告，公司拟通过旗下全资子公司分别开展滁州二期年产5GW单晶组件项目、咸阳年产5GW单晶组件项目、西安泾渭新城年产5GW单晶电池项目，预计总投资额达63.22亿元，以自筹方式解决资金来源。 除上述新项目外，隆基股份半年报显示，累计已签订的投资扩产项目达14个，且大部分项目集中于2018年至今签订。其中，已达产项目4个；项目暂缓1个；在建项目9个。 另外，截至2019年8月，隆基股份2019年已发布9项产能投资计划，总投资规模合计约177.7亿元，扩张规模及速度远超同行。 对于看重未来的资本市场，隆基股份三季度的优秀业绩还能否持续，将是影响其股价最重要的一个因素。
     从领先到追赶：技术路线选择是隆基脱颖而出的关键，隆基在行业盛行多晶硅的时代，提前押注单晶硅。而在光伏行业单晶硅化进程加快的时候，坐收业绩成果。 据统计，公司自2012年上市至今，疯狂扩产，直接融资金额已高达146.90亿元，隆基也试图通过此举与竞争对手拉开差距。 数据显示，公司营业收入从2014年36.8亿元增长至2018年的219.88亿元，年复合增长率高达42.98%。净利润也呈现迅速上升态势，从2014年的2.99亿元上升至2018年的25.67亿元，其中2017年公司净利润为35.49亿元，是近五年的顶峰。

     今年半年报显示，公司营业总收入141.11亿元，同比增长41.09%；净利润20.10亿元 同比增长53.76%。虽然隆基一直被誉为单晶硅王者，但竞争对手中环股份（002129.SZ）的快速发展，也令隆基腹背受敌。从单晶硅片的市场格局来看，国内单晶硅市场已呈现出双寡头格局。2018年，隆基和中环单晶硅片产能分别为28GW和23GW，合计占比单晶硅片总产能的70.8%。在未来单晶硅片扩产时期，中环仍将是扩产主力的第一梯队。 更为关键的是，随着大硅片成为行业发展趋势，中环在技术迭代上频频领先，而隆基股份似乎从行业领先者变为追赶者。
     据悉，光伏行业提升单块硅片面积已是大势所趋，通过增加电池有效受光面积来增加组件效率和功率，节约土地、施工等成本，并且有效提升硅片企业产能，进而降低成本，最终实现LCOE（平准化度电成本）最优。 今年6月隆基推出166毫米硅片，由于尺寸达到目前下游电池企业生产冗余极限，被认为是单晶硅片设计的最大可能。
     然而，两个月后，中环就发布了210毫米光伏大硅片系列产品。在尺寸上，中环打破了行业默认的166毫米极限，将硅棒尺寸从8英寸提升至12英寸水平。中环方面表示，由此配套的叠瓦组件，将功率提升至600瓦级别(当前市场平均300W级别，部分高效产品400W)。 根据中环股份的测算，210比166在电站建设环节节约12%的BOS成本（除组件以外的系统成本），相应的LCOE（平准化能源成本）降低4.1%。 更有投资分析人士提出，“210产品基于12英寸，能够将度电成本下降6%，同等条件下，电站的毛利率能够提高6%。”中环推出210毫米的大硅片，将大尺寸推到了极致，有分析指出，中环此举实现了三个否定——否定现有产品、否定现有技术、否定现有自我。无疑，这一产品将对整个产业链条进行重塑。
       虽然12英寸大尺寸光伏硅片还有待产业链验证，但一般而言，行业投资者更青睐于先进的技术。中环已经提出2020年16GW的210硅片投产计划，联合产业链的伙伴加速210硅片的产业化。从股价表现来看，中环股份近一年交易日涨幅超过120%，隆基股份近一年涨幅也超过1倍，不过在10月16日大跌后，隆基股份股价在10月18日再度下跌3.5%。 单晶硅之王，是否就此“陨落”，时间会给出答案。

Net profit in the third quarter is expected to more than double, the share price fell 8.6%, known as the white horse stock Longji shares (601012.SH) to make investors confused. "Abnormal things will be demon", October 16 that day Longji shares evaporated more than 8.6 billion yuan in a single day, the total turnover reached 3.539 billion yuan, such a high turnover, and institutional investors "hand" is not related. However, has been maintaining high growth of Longji shares, why was investors short?Can the king of global monocrystalline silicon continue to be strong?

Weird slump: October 15 evening, Longji shares disclosed the results of the third quarter of 2019 forecast, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.402 billion to 3.502 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year growth of 101%-107%. Among them, Longji shares in the third quarter of a single quarter to the mother of net profit growth as high as 263%-289%, the performance is quite bright. However, oddly enough, the company's share price was heavily "sold" on October 16, with a turnover of 3.539 billion yuan that day. Some analyses believe that when the photovoltaic policy and subsidies are about to decline, the company grabbed the high growth profit brought by the installation in the third quarter, and it is difficult to sustain. Uncertainty about the policy changes facing the entire photovoltaic industry is a big reason for the stock price drop.

As for the high growth of performance, the company explained that during the reporting period, on the one hand, driven by the rapid growth of overseas market demand, the sales volume of monocrystalline silicon wafers and components of the company increased significantly year on year, the proportion of overseas sales of components products increased rapidly, the sales area was further expanded, and overseas revenue increased significantly year on year. On the other hand, benefiting from the improvement of technological level, the company's production costs continue to decline. In other words, Longji shares high growth performance, mainly from overseas markets. The company did not mention the domestic market. It is worth noting that for the domestic market, the market had generally bullish.According to the previous forecast of the National Energy Administration, the domestic annual PV installed capacity is expected to be 40GW-45GW in 2019, corresponding to the new installed capacity of 28.6GW-33.6GW in the second half of the year, a substantial increase of 1.51 times -1.95 times from the first half of the year, and a substantial increase of 43%-68% compared with 2018. Investors' high expectations for the domestic PV market in the second half of this year also come from this. However, from the actual installed capacity, the peak demand of the domestic market did not arrive in the third quarter. According to the statistics of China Electricity Federation, the new photovoltaic power generation capacity in August was 1.49GW, down 15% year on year, and the new photovoltaic power generation capacity from January to August was 14.95GW, down 55% year on year.Industry performance and market expectations are clearly misplaced, so investors with practical action, Longji shares in the first three quarters of the performance of the "question".

As the world's leading monocrystalline silicon, Longi shares in recent years frequently horse to circle the field, and constantly expand the scale of investment. On October 15 announcement, the company plans to carry out Chuzhou second annual production of 5GW single crystal module project, Xianyang annual production of 5GW single crystal module project, Xi 'an Jingwei New City annual production of 5GW single crystal battery project through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, the total investment is expected to reach 6.322 billion yuan, to solve the source of funds by self-financing.In addition to the above new projects, Longji's semi-annual report shows that a total of 14 investment and production expansion projects have been signed, and most of the projects have been signed since 2018. Among them, 4 projects have reached production;1 project was postponed; Nine projects are under construction. In addition, as of August 2019, Longji Stock has released 9 production capacity investment plans in 2019, with a total investment scale of about 17.77 billion yuan. The expansion scale and speed are far faster than peers. For the value of the future of the capital market, Longji shares in the third quarter of the outstanding performance can continue, will be the most important factor affecting its share price.

From leading to catching up: the choice of technical route is the key for Longi to stand out. Longi made an early bet on mono-crystalline silicon in the era of polycrystalline silicon in the industry. And in the photovoltaic industry, when the process of single crystal silicification is accelerated, the performance results. According to statistics, since the company went public in 2012, the crazy expansion of production, direct financing amount has reached as high as 14.690 billion yuan, Longji is also trying to open a gap with competitors through this move. Data showed that the company's operating revenue increased from 3.68 billion yuan in 2014 to 21.988 billion yuan in 2018, with a compound annual growth rate of 42.98%. Net profit also showed a rapid upward trend, rising from 299 million yuan in 2014 to 2.567 billion yuan in 2018, of which the company's net profit in 2017 was 3.549 billion yuan, the peak in the past five years.

This year's semi-annual report shows that the company's total revenue is 14.111 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 41.09%; Net profit was 2.01 billion yuan, up 53.76 percent year on year. Although Longi has long been hailed as the king of monocrystal silicon, it has also been hit by the rapid growth of rival CMC Holdings (002129.SZ). From the perspective of the market pattern of monocrystalline silicon wafers, the domestic monocrystalline silicon market has presented a dual oligopoly pattern. In 2018, Longji and Zhonghuan monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity is 28GW and 23GW respectively, accounting for 70.8% of the total monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity. In the future monocrystalline silicon wafer expansion period, Central will still be the main expansion of the first echelon.More importantly, with the development trend of large silicon wafers in the industry, CMC has taken the lead in technological iterations, while Longji shares seem to be changing from the industry leader to the pursuer.

It is reported that the photovoltaic industry to improve the area of a single silicon wafer has been the trend of The Times, by increasing the effective light area of the cell to increase module efficiency and power, save land, construction and other costs, and effectively improve the production capacity of silicon wafer enterprises, and then reduce costs, and ultimately achieve the optimal LCOE (levelization cost per kilowatt hour). In June this year, Longji launched 166-millimeter silicon wafer, which is considered to be the largest possible design of monocrystalline silicon wafer due to its size reaching the current redundancy limit of downstream battery production.

However, two months later, CMC launched a series of 210mm large photovoltaic silicon wafers.In terms of size, CMC broke the industry's default 166-mm limit and raised the rod size from 8 inches to 12 inches. According to CMC, the matching imbricate components will increase the power level to 600 watts (the current market average is 300 watts, and some efficient products are 400 watts). According to the calculation of CMC, compared with 166, 210 saves 12% BOS cost (system cost other than components) in the construction link of the power station, and the corresponding LCOE (leveled energy cost) reduces by 4.1%. "The 210 product, based on 12 inches, can reduce the cost per kilowatt hour by 6%, and the gross profit margin of the plant can be increased by 6% under the same conditions," said an investment analyst. The introduction of 210mm silicon wafers has pushed the large size to the extreme. According to some analysis, this move has achieved three negations -- negation of the existing products, negation of the existing technology and negation of the existing self. Undoubtedly, this product will reshape the entire industrial chain.

While 12-inch large photovoltaic wafers have yet to be proven by the industry chain, industry investors generally prefer advanced technologies. CMC has proposed a 16GW 210 wafer production plan in 2020, and is cooperating with industrial chain partners to accelerate the industrialization of 210 wafers. In terms of share price performance, CMC shares have risen more than 120% in the past year, while Longji shares have more than doubled in the past year. However, after a sharp drop on Oct. 16, Longji shares fell another 3.5% on Oct. 18. Time will tell if the king of monocrystalline silicon is going to fall.