最近光伏板块回调力度非常大，其中主要的原因是一方面硅料涨价太厉害，导致终端厂商停工不接受，影响需求，但全年装机量在50GW是可以保证的，只是70GW看组件价格。另一方面由于硅料涨价太厉害，光伏各环节需要让利硅料，使市场对光伏其他环节厂商今年业绩悲观，这是从行业层面看最近光伏板块的回调。隆基股份首当其冲，从最高点跌下来近30%。目前隆基以21年EPS估算PE为27X，估值相对来说已经是比较合理了，所以有挺多人跃跃欲试想加仓。通过复盘隆基历史，基本可以知道隆基股价波动受行业两大属性影响，分别是周期性和成长性。
02行业属性 光伏行业的发展受周期性和成长性两方面的影响。
（1）周期性周期性受两方面因素影响：一方面是下游需求受政策如2012年的“双反”、2018年的“531”新政以及不可抗力因素，如2020年新冠影响装机需求。另一方面受硅料、玻璃建设周期长影响，供需错配不仅影响行业利润的分配，也影响终端装机量的上限，轻则影响企业全年利润，重则使行业出清。
（2）成长性
近几年光伏行业技术的迭代，成本不断降低，使一些省份光伏度电成本已经低于煤炭度电成本，平价时代真的来临了。同时平价的驱动，使光伏成为新能源装机的革命军，目前全球光伏发电仅占总发电的2.7%，渗透率还比较低，全球为了实现碳中和目标，光伏发电渗透率将会进一步提高。
03公司作为光伏龙头企业，自然受行业因素影响隆基股份作为光伏行业的老大哥，自然受行业属性影响，通过复盘历史，基本可以确定隆基短期波动受周期性影响，长期上涨受成长性驱动。隆基自上市以来净利润从2.84亿元，增长至2019年的52.8亿元，净利润翻了18倍，股价最高翻了40倍。这其中除了行业成长性影响外，也由于公司优秀的战略部署以及持续的高研发。
04公司过去的成功任何一个企业的成功都来自于其自建的护城河，而隆基股份作为光伏的龙头，拥有着优秀的战略部署以及持续的高研发铸造了其在光伏领域领头羊的地位。
（1）优秀的战略部署
公司早期在单晶硅片与多晶硅片的路径上，坚决地选择了单晶硅片路线，主要由于单晶硅片转化效率更高，在有限的土地上发挥最大效应，同时单晶硅片薄片化潜力更大，在硅料占硅片成本近67%的情况下，薄片化可以降低成本。
另外当时行业路径选择多晶硅片，这样的背景下严重影响单晶硅片渗透率的提升，公司立即在2014年末切入组件市场，打开单晶硅片需求上限，随后一并切入电池片环节，成功完成一体化战略。在光伏平价化的趋势下，成本控制的能力是非常重要的，公司一体化的战略将会持续降低成本。另外为了降低成本，公司培养上游设备厂商连城数控、北方华创等厂商，大幅降低单晶炉等设备成本；同时为了应对光伏行业快速的升级，公司亲自设计上游设备，增强了抵抗风险的能力。
（2）高研发投入技术的快速迭代是光伏行业的特点，这就需要企业进行高研发投入，公司自2013年以来一直保持着行业领先的高研发投入。
公司在2011年已经具备金刚线切片的专利，并在2015年成为行业售价实现100%金刚线切割的企业，赚取了2-3年技术进步的利润。2015年对PERC电池进行量产研究，并在2018年迅速对原有产线进行全部升级成PERC产线。公司大多数技术自研发成功到大规模使用都有一定时间的间隔，主要由于光伏行业技术迭代速度之快，公司为了降低风险，在技术还没完全确定之前，不进行大规模量产，仅以技术储备放着，但当确定后便进行大规模量产，迅速抢占技术红利以及市场的扩容。近年来公司优秀的战略部署以及技术储备依然有，比如最近签硅料以及玻璃的长单；以及储备了HJT电池技术等。
05公司近期风险公司作为一体化厂商，自然面临硅片、电池片、组件等环节的厂商竞争。
（1）硅片环节
由于隆基硅片环节长期毛利率维持在15%-30%之间，会吸引了一些厂商进入市场。
但光伏行业需要降本，规模效应可以更好地将本，这也是制约外行进入硅片的一个因素；另外公司硅片成本控制得当，毛利率长期高于同行，公司有足够的将本空间打压新入行者。
（2）电池片环节
HJT产线隆基也有布局，同时去年12月公司规划3GW电池片建设计划，估计也用于HJT电池片量产的试验，公司这块也没有落后。
（3）组件环节
去年是210、182争吵最激烈的一年，公司虽布局了210硅片，但没有规划210组件产线，主要由于210组件相关产业链仍未成熟，以及客户接受度尚不明朗，但公司既然布局了210硅片，若未来210组件大规模使用，公司也不会放弃210组件。
06小结
复盘隆基历史，其股价波动受周期性和成长性影响；而成长性归根结底在于公司自建的护城河，公司以往的成功足以证明了隆基优秀的管理能力；目前面对行业风险，隆基也能很好地面对。未来公司依然依靠优秀的技术和管理经验面对行业的风险。同时面对光伏平价时代的到来，一体化厂商将充分受益。近期看目前公司估值27X，处于近三年平均PE的中沿线，算是合理估值，但市场风险仍在，可能会进一步压低公司估值。但长期看，公司作为龙头企业，且拥有过往成功的历史，足以证明公司是光伏企业中优秀的企业之一。券商预计2025年全球装机量将达350GW，组件环节市场规模可达3958亿元，预计公司组件市占率可达40%，硅片市占率可达50%，贡献利润208亿元，券商给了40倍估值，我保守点给25倍，也是5200亿元的市值，目前隆基股份市值3125亿元。

Recently, the photovoltaic plate is very strong, the main reason is that on the one hand, the price of silicon material is too high, leading to the terminal manufacturers do not accept the shutdown, affecting the demand, but the annual installation capacity of 50GW can be guaranteed, but 70GW depends on the price of components.On the other hand, due to the price of silicon material is too severe, the photovoltaic link needs to yield silicon material, so that the market is pessimistic about the performance of other photovoltaic manufacturers this year, which is from the industry level to see the recent photovoltaic plate callback.Longi shares bore the brunt, down nearly 30% from their peak.At present, Longji estimates PE with 21 years of EPS as 27X, which is relatively reasonable. So there are a lot of people who are eager to add positions.By reviewing the history of Longji, we can basically know that Longji's stock price fluctuations are affected by two major attributes of the industry, namely periodicity and growth.

The development of the photovoltaic industry is influenced by both periodicity and growth.

(1) Cyclic periodicity is affected by two factors: on the one hand, downstream demand is affected by policies such as the "Double Countermeasure" in 2012, the "531" New Deal in 2018 and force majeure factors such as the 2020 new crown. On the other hand, due to the long construction cycle of silicon materials and glass, the mismatch between supply and demand not only affects the distribution of industry profits, but also affects the upper limit of terminal installed capacity. At the least, it affects the annual profit of enterprises, and at the most, it causes the liquidation of the industry.

(2) Growth

In recent years, the photovoltaic industry technology iteration, the cost continues to reduce, so that some provinces photovoltaic cost per kilowatt hour is lower than the cost of coal, parity era is really coming. At the same time, the drive of parity makes photovoltaic become a revolutionary army of new energy installed. At present, the global photovoltaic power generation only accounts for 2.7% of the total power generation, and its permeability is still relatively low. In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, the penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation will be further increased.

As a leading photovoltaic enterprise, Longi shares are naturally affected by industry factors. As the big brother of the photovoltaic industry, Longi shares are naturally affected by industry attributes. By reviewing the history, we can basically determine that Longi's short-term fluctuations are affected by periodicity, while its long-term rise is driven by growth. Longji's net profit has increased from 284 million yuan to 5.28 billion yuan in 2019 since its listing, with its net profit increasing by 18 times and its stock price increasing by 40 times at the highest. In addition to the impact of the industry growth, but also due to the company's excellent strategic deployment and continuous high research and development.

The success of any enterprise comes from its self-built moat. As a leader in photovoltaic industry, Longi Co., Ltd. has excellent strategic deployment and continuous high research and development, which has cast its leading position in photovoltaic field.

(1) Excellent strategic deployment

In the early stage, the company resolutely chose the path of monocrystalline silicon wafer on the path of monocrystalline silicon wafer and polycrystalline silicon wafer. The main reason is that the conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon wafer is higher, which can give full play to the maximum effect on the limited land. At the same time, the thinning potential of monocrystalline silicon wafer is greater.

In addition, the industry chose polycrystalline silicon wafers at that time, which seriously affected the improvement of the penetration rate of monocrystalline silicon wafers. The company immediately entered the component market at the end of 2014, opened the upper limit of the demand for monocrystalline silicon wafers, and then cut into the link of battery wafers, successfully completed the integration strategy. In the trend of photovoltaic parity, the ability to control the cost is very important, the company integration strategy will continue to reduce the cost.In addition, in order to reduce costs, the company trained upstream equipment manufacturers such as Liancheng CNC and NAURA to significantly reduce the cost of single crystal furnace and other equipment. At the same time, in order to cope with the rapid upgrading of the photovoltaic industry, the company personally designed the upstream equipment to enhance the ability to resist risks.

(2) The rapid iteration of high R&D investment technology is a characteristic of the photovoltaic industry, which requires high R&D investment by enterprises. Since 2013, the company has maintained an industry-leading high R&D investment.

The company has a diamond wire slice patent in 2011, and in 2015 became the industry price to achieve 100% diamond wire cutting enterprises, earned 2-3 years of technical progress of profits. In 2015, the mass production of the PERC battery was studied, and in 2018, the original production line was rapidly upgraded to the PERC production line.Company most technology from the developed to the widespread use has certain time intervals, mainly due to the photovoltaic industry technology iteration speed, the company in order to reduce risk, the technology is still not entirely sure before, not for mass production, only to technical reserves, but when determining for mass production, and then quickly take technology dividends and market expansion. In recent years, the company still has excellent strategic deployment and technical reserves, such as the recent signing of silicon materials and glass long order; As well as the stock of HJT battery technology.

As an integrated manufacturer, the company naturally faces competition from manufacturers in silicon wafer, battery wafer, module and other links.

(1) silicon chip link

As long - term gross margin of silicon chip link to maintain between 15%-30%, will attract some manufacturers to enter the market.

But the photovoltaic industry needs to reduce the cost, the scale effect can be better, this is also a factor restricting the layman into silicon wafer; In addition, the company's silicon wafer cost is properly controlled, the gross profit margin is higher than the peers for a long time, and the company has enough space to suppress new entrants.

(2) Battery link

HJT production line Longji also has the layout, and in December last year, the company planned the construction plan of 3GW battery, which is estimated to be used for the test of mass production of HJT battery, and the company is not lagging behind.

(3) Component link

Last year was the most heated quarrel between 210 and 182. Although the company arranged 210 silicon wafers, it did not plan the production line of 210 components, mainly due to the immature industrial chain of 210 components and unclear customer acceptance. However, since the company arranged 210 silicon wafers, if 210 components are used on a large scale in the future, the company will not give up 210 components.

06 summary

Reviving the history of Longji, its stock price fluctuation is influenced by periodicity and growth;The growth in the final analysis lies in the company's self-built moat, the company's past success is enough to prove the excellent management ability of Longji; At present, Longji can face the industry risks well.In the future, the company will still rely on excellent technology and management experience to face the risks of the industry. At the same time, facing the arrival of the era of PV parity, integrated manufacturers will fully benefit.Recently, the company's current valuation is 27X, which is in the middle of the average PE in the past three years. It is a reasonable valuation, but the market risks are still there, which may further depress the company's valuation. However, in the long term, the company as a leading enterprise, and has a past successful history, enough to prove that the company is one of the outstanding photovoltaic enterprises. The brokerage expects that the global installed volume will reach 350GW in 2025, and the market size of the component link can reach 395.8 billion yuan. It is expected that the component market share of the company can reach 40%, and the silicon chip market share can reach 50%, contributing a profit of 20.8 billion yuan. The brokerage gave a valuation of 40 times, and I am conservative to give 25 times, which is also the market value of 520 billion yuan.