光伏行业2022年有哪些重要展望？

在光伏产业链中，上游包括：硅料、硅片环节；中游为：电池片、电池组件环节；下游则为应用系统环节。

其中，产能方面，硅业分会数据显示，根据国内硅料和硅片企业公布的扩产计划， 2022年硅片环节产能依旧大幅增长，环比增幅预计在20%以上； 硅料环节2019年中扩产新建的产能，将在2022年初或年中陆续释放，预计全年硅料产量在75万吨左右，与终端装机220-230GW的预期相比，仍有不足。

不过，新产能的释放需要一定时间。“多晶硅扩产周期较长，从开始建设到投产需要约12-18个月，而开炉生产、产能爬坡、满产又需3-6个月时间。”有业内人士分析表示。同时，集邦咨询研究认为，“2022年上半年新增有效产能有限，扩产产能在2022年年中逐步达产。”

“随着新产能的释放，老旧产能的竞争力（如：转换效率低、制造成本高、售价低等方面）将会急剧下降。这也意味着，新产能的释放迫使老旧产能加速退出。在这种‘腾笼换鸟’的情况下，一减一加，预计不会存在太大的过剩压力。”山东航禹能源有限公司执行董事丁文磊向《科创板日报》记者分析表示。

格菲资本光伏行业研究员冯晓婷告诉《科创板日报》记者，“理论上来说，产能越多的环节话语权越弱。2022年，硅料产能预计增加40％以上，不会出现硅料非常‘强势’的情况。越下游名义产能越多，预计可以通过老产能出清等方式出现一种动态平衡。”

价格方面，据中国有色金属硅业协会专家委副主任吕锦标预计，“ 2022年下半年，硅料供应将大幅增长，新进硅片厂开始较大量采购硅料，届时硅料价格将会下行。”

冯晓婷则向《科创板日报》记者预测称，“2022年，硅片价格下跌、硅料价格下跌、硅片产能释放。”

长城证券研究表示，硅料价格将在2022年上半年平稳下行，下半年或将加速下行，全年价格中枢或将落在150-200元/kg。

当前，N型电池已成为业内新一轮争夺的高地。PV InfoLink数据显示，相比P型电池，N型电池具体转换效率高、温度系数低、光衰减系数低、弱光响应等优势，其不仅BOS成本（光伏组件外的系统成本）更低，在全生命周期内的发电量也高于P型电池。

“N型电池目前的技术路线主要包括：TOPCon、HJT、IBC或三种融合的技术。这其中最关键在于，哪条技术路线能率先以低成本实现转化效率。”有业内资深从业者向《科创板日报》记者分析表示。

其中，隆基股份、晶科能源、一道新能、中来光电等均已布局N型TOPCon电池；与此同时，据不完全统计，华晟新能源、钧石能源、山煤国际、通威股份、爱康科技、东方日升、明阳智能、金刚玻璃等均已宣布GW级异质结项目扩产计划。

“总体来说，N型电池技术路线各有特色。TOPCon是大多数老厂家所选择的道路，而HJT被誉为新玩家弯道超车的途径，与此同时，爱旭股份的N型ABC电池也比较有看点。”冯晓婷认为。

政策方面，近日，工业和信息化部等五部委印发《智能光伏产业创新发展行动计划（2021-2025年）》提到，开展N型TOPCon、HJT、IBC等高效电池的研发与产业化。

中金公司研究表示，当前P型电池基本已达量产性能极限，而N型电池有望拉动行业技术发展再上一个台阶、是未来五年行业技术发展主旋律，有望重新拉开企业之间的技术实力差距、带来新的投资逻辑和机遇。根据各主流厂商扩产计划，2022年N型电池规模或达40-50GW，N型需求起量将影响产业链各环节竞争格局。

中国光伏行业协会数据显示，2021年1-10月，光伏发电新增装机29.31GW，同比增长34%。其中，分布式装机19.03GW，占比达64.9%。

政策方面，近日，工业和信息化部等五部委印发《智能光伏产业创新发展行动计划（2021-2025年）》提到，在有条件的城镇和农村地区，统筹推进居民屋面智能光伏系统，鼓励新建政府投资公益性建筑推广太阳能屋顶系统。开展以智能光伏系统为核心，以储能、建筑电力需求响应等新技术为载体的区域级光伏分布式应用示范。

与集中式光伏相比，分布式光伏造价低、收益率高，经济优势更为突出。根据太阳能行业协会、西勘院、中信建投证券测算数据，以组件价格1.95元/W测算，集中式光伏电站单位投资成本为4.2元/W，分布式光伏电站单位投资成本为3.2元/W，分布式光伏系统造价显著低于集中式电站；若全额上网，分布式光伏电站收益率显著高于集中式光伏电站。

当前，相关分布式企业包括：正泰电器、晶科科技、中来股份、天合光能等。

“在整县分布式光伏的推动下，预计光伏集中式占比将逐渐小幅下移，分布式光伏有望进入规模化发展阶段。”有业内人士向《科创板日报》记者分析表示。

中国光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华表示，未来分布式光伏将迎来规模化发展的市场空间。“原因主要有两点：

第一，国家、地方政策的支持，以央企为梯队，地方国有企业和跨界能源巨头企业为代表纷纷进入分布式市场。

第二，光伏盈利模式、商业模式的多元化。盈利上光伏电站收益新增绿电交易和碳交易（CCER）等盈利模式，商业模式方面是综合能源服务和光伏与电动汽车融合发展。”

中泰证券指出，贸易形势严峻及供应链价格上涨导致光伏装机不达预期，2021年装机预测下调，而2022年装机规模有望高增至60-75GW；长城证券研究认为，2022年全球光伏市场有望在原材料价格下行和政策支持双驱动下迎来需求大年，预计2022年，国内光伏新增装机110GW。

对此，山东航禹能源有限公司执行董事丁文磊向《科创板日报》记者分析认为，“2022年，光伏装机保守估计约80GW，乐观估计或将突破100GW。”

另据中国光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华预测，“在国内巨大的光伏发电项目储备量推动下，2022年光伏装机可能会增至75GW以上。”

Prospect 1: New capacity of silicon material may be released in the second half of the year  

In the photovoltaic industry chain, the upstream includes: silicon material, silicon chip;  The middle is: battery, battery components;  Downstream is the application system link.  

Among them, in terms of capacity, data from silicon Industry Branch show that according to the expansion plan announced by domestic silicon material and silicon wafer enterprises, the capacity of silicon wafer is still growing substantially in 2022, with the sequential growth expected to be more than 20%;   The newly built capacity of silicon material will be released in the early or middle of 2022. The annual silicon material output is expected to be about 750,000 tons, which is still insufficient compared with the expected terminal installed capacity of 220-230GW.  

However, the release of new capacity will take time.  "Polysilicon expansion cycle is long, from the beginning of construction to production needs about 12-18 months, and open furnace production, capacity climbing, full production takes 3-6 months."  Analysis of the personage inside course of study.  Meanwhile, "Effective capacity additions are limited in the first half of 2022, with expanded capacity gradually reaching production in mid-2022," according to CIMB Research.  

"With the release of new capacity, the competitiveness of old capacity (e.g., low conversion efficiency, high manufacturing cost, low price) will be sharply reduced.   It also means that the release of new capacity forces an accelerated exit of old capacity.  In such a situation, there will not be too much excess pressure.  Shan Dong Hang Yu energy Co., LTD. Executive director Ding Wenlei to "science and technology innovation Board Daily" reporter analysis said.  

Feng Xiaoting, a photovoltaic industry researcher at Griffey Capital, told KECHUANG Board Daily: "Theoretically, the more production capacity there is, the weaker the voice will be.   In 2022, the capacity of silicon material is expected to increase by more than 40%, and there will not be a very 'strong' situation of silicon material.  "As more nominal capacity grows downstream, a dynamic balance is expected to emerge, such as through the liquidation of old capacity."  

In terms of price, According to Lu Jinbiao, deputy director of expert Committee of China Non-ferrous Silicon Industry Association, "in the second half of 2022, silicon material supply will increase significantly, and new silicon chip factories will start to purchase silicon material in large quantities, and the silicon material price will decline."  

Feng Xiaoting predicted to "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" that "in 2022, the price of silicon chip will fall, the price of silicon material will fall, and the capacity of silicon chip will be released."  

Great Wall Securities research said that silicon prices will be stable in the first half of 2022, the second half of the year or will accelerate the decline, the annual price center or will fall in 150-200 yuan /kg.  

Prospect 2: Can n-type battery accelerate its development  

At present, N battery has become a new round of competition within the industry.  PV InfoLink data show that compared with P-type cells, N-type cells have advantages such as high specific conversion efficiency, low temperature coefficient, low optical attenuation coefficient and weak light response, which not only have lower BOS cost (system cost outside PV modules), but also have higher power generation over the full life cycle than P-type cells.  

"The current technology route for N-type batteries mainly includes TOPCon, HJT, IBC or a combination of the three technologies.  The key is which technology route can be the first to achieve conversion efficiency at low cost."  There are senior practitioners in the industry to "science and technology Innovation Board Daily" reporter analysis said.  

Among them, Lonji, Jinkosolar, One Sun Energy, China Photoelectric and so on have all laid out N-type TOPCon batteries;  At the same time, according to incomplete statistics, Huasheng new energy, Junshi Energy, mountain coal International, Tongwei shares, Aikang Technology, Oriental Sunrise, Mingyang Intelligent, King Kong glass have announced GW class heterojunction project expansion plan.  

"In general, n-cell technology has its own unique route.  TOPCon is the road chosen by most of the old manufacturers, while HJT is known as the way for new players to overtake in the curve. At the same time, The N-type ABC battery of Asahi Shares is also quite interesting."  Feng Xiaoting thinks.  

In terms of policy, recently, five ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Action Plan for Innovation and Development of Intelligent Photovoltaic Industry (2021-2025), which mentioned the development and industrialization of n-type TOPCon, HJT, IBC and other efficient batteries.  

Cicc research said that the current P-type battery has basically reached the performance limit of mass production, and n-type battery is expected to pull the industry technology development to a higher level, is the main melody of the industry technology development in the next five years, is expected to reopen the gap in technological strength between enterprises, and bring new investment logic and opportunities.   According to the expansion plan of various mainstream manufacturers, the scale of N-type battery may reach 40-50GW in 2022, and the starting amount of N-type demand will affect the competitive pattern of all links of the industrial chain.  

Prospect 3: Distributed photovoltaic development is expected to scale  

From January to October 2021, 29.31GW of new photovoltaic power generation was installed, up 34 percent year-on-year, according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association.   Among them, the distributed installed capacity was 19.03GW, accounting for 64.9%.  

In terms of policy, recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five ministries issued the "Intelligent Photovoltaic Industry Innovation and Development Action Plan (2021-2025)" mentioned that, in urban and rural areas where conditions permit, the overall promotion of intelligent residential roof photovoltaic system, encourage new government investment in public welfare buildings to promote solar roof system.   To carry out region-level demonstration of distributed application of photovoltaic with intelligent photovoltaic system as the core and new technologies such as energy storage and building power demand response as the carrier.  

Compared with centralized pv, distributed PV has low cost, high yield and more prominent economic advantages.  According to the calculation data of Solar Energy Industry Association, West Exploration & Surveying Institute and CITIC Construction & Investment Securities, the unit investment cost of centralized photovoltaic power station is 4.2 yuan /W and that of distributed photovoltaic power station is 3.2 yuan /W based on the component price of 1.95 yuan /W. The cost of distributed photovoltaic system is significantly lower than that of centralized power station.  If fully connected to the Internet, the yield of distributed photovoltaic power station is significantly higher than that of centralized photovoltaic power station.  

At present, related distributed enterprises include chint Electric Appliance, Jinkotech, China Lai Stock, Trina Solar energy, etc.  

"Driven by distributed pv in the whole county, it is expected that the proportion of photovoltaic concentration will gradually move down slightly, and distributed PV is expected to enter the stage of large-scale development."   Industry insiders to "science and technology innovation Board daily" reporter analysis said.  

Wang Bohua, honorary president of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that the future distributed photovoltaic will usher in large-scale development of the market space.   "There are two main reasons:  

First, support from national and local policies, with central enterprises as echelons, local state-owned enterprises and cross-border energy giants as representatives, have entered the distributed market.  

Second, diversification of photovoltaic profit model and business model.  In terms of profits, new profit models such as green electricity trading and carbon trading (CCER) have been added to the profits of photovoltaic power stations. The business model is integrated energy services and integrated development of photovoltaic and electric vehicles."  

Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the severe trade situation and supply chain price rise led to photovoltaic installed capacity is not up to expectations, 2021 installed capacity forecast downward, and 2022 installed capacity is expected to increase to 60-75GW;   Great Wall Securities research believes that in 2022, the global photovoltaic market is expected to usher in a big year of demand driven by declining raw material prices and policy support. It is estimated that in 2022, the domestic photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 110GW.  

In this regard, Ding Wenlei, executive director of Shandong Airlines Yu Energy Co., Ltd. told kEChuang Board Daily that "in 2022, photovoltaic installed capacity is conservatively estimated to be about 80GW, and optimistic estimates may break through 100GW."  

According to Wang Bohua, honorary president of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, "Driven by the huge reserves of photovoltaic power generation projects in China, photovoltaic installed capacity may increase to more than 75GW in 2022."