2020年公募四季度持仓出炉，隆基股份已是公募前十大重仓股。作为一线明星抱团股，隆基股份的研报足够多，这里不再分析，只需要知道中国光伏世界第一，而隆基股份是光伏行业第一龙头股便可，这篇文章主要讲投资逻辑。

      前景广阔，从本质上看，地球上除了核能、潮汐能、地热能等少数能源，像化石燃料、风能、水能、生物质能等，它们追根溯源只是一种中间储能媒介，其最终来源都是太阳能。而光伏发电则是利用太阳能直接转化为人类可利用的电能，如果光伏发电的效率突破临界点，那么它将是可利用效率最高的能源，而且清洁、可再生。我国的能源结构以火电为主，占比超70%，而光伏发电量不足3%，发电成本与并网消纳是限制光伏发电的两大因素。在此前多年，单靠市场经济光伏行业是没有市场的，因为发电成本远超传统火电，没有经济效益，靠的是国家持续补贴输血，用钱铺就一个行业的生存土壤，让我国的光伏行业得以萌芽成长。如今随着技术的进步，发电成本不断下降，到2019-2020年，光伏发电已经可以逐步做到平价上网，与传统火电进行竞争。平价上网是光伏行业的主要投资逻辑，它意味着从经济效益上看，光电有逐步蚕食火电的潜力。目前我国的光伏发电占全社会发电量不到3%，一旦迈过平价上网这个门槛，在国内便打开了10倍以上的市场空间。而从国际上看，一些资源贫困国，光伏发电已经是当地最低的电力成本，市场空间已经打开。另一个限制光伏行业的问题是消纳并网。西北地区发的电如何传输到东部沿海；日照不稳定而储能技术又不完善，限制了光伏发电的发展空间。不过这些是次要问题，只要光电成本低于火电，随着时间的推移与技术的进步，消纳问题终将解决。从长远来看，在技术进步与各国发展清洁能源的共识下，光伏发电终将从边缘走向主流，甚至是一场人类能源结构的变革。

     机构抱团炒作，2021年一月份以来，新基金募集规模连续三周突破1000亿，在A股过去多年的历史里，仅2015年5月第5周、2020年7月第3周曾突破单周千亿的募集规模，今年一上来便连续三周突破千亿，火爆程度可见一斑。基金抱团股在2020年不断自我强化，2021年一上来又手握大笔钞票，站在基金经理的角度，手里动辄百亿现金，要买什么股票是一个令人头疼的问题。小市值股票无法承载他们的资金量，把钱投往茅台、腾讯、阿里等万亿巨头之后，剩下的各种“茅股”已经被轮番爆炒，透支了未来数年的业绩。像拼多多、美团这种盈利还没上来的，资本已经迫不及待地帮它们讲了一个万亿的故事。别看AH股数千票，真正能出手的不过百十只。看来看去，隆基股份净利润即将百亿规模，TTM市盈率50多倍，对应翻倍的业绩增速，对于成长股还算说得过去。2020年翻了3倍是挺高，不过高瓴也是涨到70块才买的，只要2021年业绩再上一个台阶，估值就来下了。现在全球大国讲碳中和，讲新能源，宁德时代前有狼后有虎，今年业绩停滞也给干到万亿市值，隆基的利润是宁德的数倍，业绩还在翻倍，光伏的钱途不比电动车差，能不能也来讲个万亿的故事？退一步讲，五粮液一个卖酒的行业老二已经万亿，美团一个赔钱货也过万亿，隆基这么一个干实业，国家先进制造的代表，给个万亿市值不算过分吧？手里几十亿真没多少票可买，既然有一只4000多亿的盘子，前景也广阔，既然那么多股民自己不敢出手，把钱塞给我，那就由我来干吧。只要隆基2021年业绩保持高速增长，那就给它干到万亿再说......亏了是广大基民的，赚了升职加薪、再发新基，走向人生巅峰。

In the four quarters of public offering in 2020, Longji shares have been among the top ten public offering stocks.As a group stock of A-list stars, there are enough research reports of Longi Stock. There is no longer any analysis here. What you need to know is that China's photovoltaic industry is the first in the world and Longi Stock is the first leading stock in the photovoltaic industry.

In essence, in addition to nuclear energy, tidal energy, geothermal energy and a few other energy sources on the earth, such as fossil fuel, wind energy, water energy, biomass energy, etc., they trace back to their source only as an intermediate energy storage medium, and their final source is solar energy. And photovoltaic power generation is the use of solar energy directly into human usable electric energy, if the efficiency of photovoltaic power generation breakthrough critical point, then it will be available to the highest efficiency of energy, and clean, renewable.China's energy structure is dominated by thermal power, accounting for more than 70%, while photovoltaic power generation is less than 3%. Power generation cost and grid-connected consumption are two major factors limiting photovoltaic power generation. For many years before that, there was no market for the photovoltaic industry by market economy alone, because the cost of power generation was far more than that of traditional thermal power, and there was no economic benefit. It was the state's continuous subsidies and blood transfusion that paved the survival soil of an industry with money, so that China's photovoltaic industry could sprout and grow.Nowadays, with the progress of technology, the cost of power generation is constantly falling. By 2019-2020, photovoltaic power generation will be able to gradually achieve affordable Internet access and compete with traditional thermal power. Par access is the main investment logic of the photovoltaic industry, which means that from the perspective of economic benefits, photoelectricity has the potential to gradually nibble away at thermal power. At present, China's photovoltaic power generation accounts for less than 3% of the total social power generation. Once it crosses the threshold of parity Internet access, it will open more than 10 times the market space in China. Internationally, in some resource-poor countries, photovoltaic power generation is already the lowest cost of electricity, and the market space has been opened.Another problem limiting the PV industry is the adoption of grid-connection. How electricity generated in the northwest is transmitted to the east coast; Unstable sunshine and imperfect energy storage technology limit the development space of photovoltaic power generation. But these are minor issues. As long as the cost of photoelectricity is lower than that of thermal power, with the passage of time and technological progress, the absorption problem will eventually be solved. In the long run, under the consensus of technological progress and the development of clean energy in various countries, photovoltaic power generation will eventually move from the edge to the mainstream, or even a change in the human energy structure.

Since January 2021, the new fund raising scale has exceeded 100 billion yuan for three consecutive weeks. In the history of A shares in the past many years, only the fifth week of May 2015 and the third week of July 2020 have exceeded 100 billion yuan in A single week. At the beginning of this year, it has exceeded 100 billion yuan for three consecutive weeks, which shows the hot degree. Fund stocks continue to self-reinforce in 2020. In 2021, they will start out with a lot of money. From the perspective of fund managers, they will have billions of dollars in cash. Small-cap stocks can't support their capital. After putting money into the trillion-dollar giants like Moutai, Tencent and Alibaba, the remaining "maostocks" have been wildly speculated, which will overdraw their performance in the next few years. Like Pinduoduo, Meituan this kind of profit has not come up, the capital has been unable to wait to help them tell a story of one trillion yuan.Don't look at AH shares thousands of votes, can really hand but 100. Seems to see, Longji shares net profit is about 10 billion scale, TTM P/E ratio of more than 50 times, corresponding to double the performance growth rate, for growth stocks is reasonable. Triple in 2020 is very high, but Hillhouse also rose to 70 yuan to buy, as long as the performance in 2021 on a higher level, the valuation will come down.Before the Ningde era, there was a Wolf after a tiger. This year, its performance stagnated to one trillion market value. Longji's profit is several times that of Ningde, and its performance is still doubling. Step back to say, Wuliangye a liquor industry has a second trillion, Meituan a loss of goods also over trillion, Longji such a dry industry, the representative of the country's advanced manufacturing, to a trillion market value is not too much, right?With billions in hand, there are not many tickets to buy. Since there is a plate with more than 400 billion yuan and a broad prospect, since so many investors are afraid to sell their own money and give it to me, I will do it. As long as longji 2021 performance to maintain high - speed growth, then give it to do to say......Loss is the broad base of the people, earned a promotion and salary increase, and then hair new base, towards the peak of life.