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隆基股份以光伏制氢的名义,焕发光伏茅台的第二春
返回列表 来源: 选股堂 发布日期: 2021.04.19 浏览次数:

       最近的氢能源领域比较热,其中光伏龙头大哥隆基股份,以光伏制氢的名义,进入了氢能源领域。3月31日,隆基绿能创投与上海朱雀合伙,注册资本3亿元,经营范围包括气体、液体分离及纯净设备制造、新兴能源技术研发和节能管理服务等,重点是光伏制氢。自2021年1月,中石化与协鑫集团、隆基股份等4家光伏企业进行视频对话,其内容之一就是充分发挥中石化在氢能产业链上的优势,合作建设大型集中式光伏发电、制氢、运氢、加氢设施。隆基的创始人李振国说,早在2018年隆基就开始关注和布局可再生能源电解制氢。选择氢能源产业,是隆基股份突破光伏产业链天花板的期望所在,也是支撑它市值的重要手段。在“十四五”规划纲要中,氢能与储能被列为前瞻谋划的六大未来产业之一,相比已经进入产业链成熟期的光伏产业,氢能源具有更广阔的发展前景和估值预期。
     总的来看,隆基股份的财务比较健康,2020年业绩突出,预计实现归母净利润82亿元到86亿元,同比增加55.3%到62.88%,也成为光伏企业中业绩表现最好的公司。隆基赚得多,跑得也快,虽然体量较大,但不失成长性,这是它成为光伏茅的根本原因。但是,选股堂以为,光伏制氢目前主要是在炒作概念和主题阶段,离落地生根,再到促进生产力发展,还有一定距离。我们来看数据,2020年全球氢燃料电池只销售了9000辆,其中中国1497辆的销售额,还是太少了。显然,现阶段氢燃料电池的基础设施是不够完善的,且燃料电池基础设施配套过程比充电桩困难,因为拉电线好办,是成熟的电网,但氢气供应链还不成熟。所以,氢能在2021年来看,情况并不乐观。
       不过,对于隆基股份,选股堂依然看重的是光伏地位,而非制氢。毕竟,氢能还处于应用的早期,未来还有很长时间的路要走,业绩兑现难度较大。但是从长周期上,我们可以给与适当的对氢能给予关注。


Recently, the field of hydrogen energy is relatively hot, among which the eldest brother of the photovoltaic leading company, Longji, entered the field of hydrogen energy in the name of photovoltaic hydrogen production. On March 31, Longji green energy venture capital and Shanghai Zhuque partnership, registered capital of 300 million yuan, business scope includes gas, liquid separation and purification equipment manufacturing, emerging energy technology research and development and energy conservation management services, focusing on photovoltaic hydrogen production.Since January 2021, Sinopec has conducted video dialogue with GCL Group, Longji Corporation and other four photovoltaic enterprises. One of the contents is to give full play to Sinopec's advantages in the hydrogen energy industry chain and cooperate in the construction of large-scale centralized photovoltaic power generation, hydrogen production, hydrogen transport and hydrogen processing facilities. Li Zhenguo, founder of Longji, said that as early as 2018, Longji began to focus on and layout of renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen production.The choice of hydrogen energy industry is Longi's expectation to break through the ceiling of the photovoltaic industry chain, and it is also an important means to support its market value. In the "14th Five-Year Plan" outline, hydrogen energy and energy storage are listed as one of the six future industries in the forward-looking plan. Compared with the photovoltaic industry, which has entered the mature stage of the industrial chain, hydrogen energy has a broader development prospect and valuation expectation.

In general, the financial health of Longji Co., Ltd., outstanding performance in 2020, is expected to achieve a net profit of 8.2 billion yuan to 8.6 billion yuan, an increase of 55.3% to 62.88%, also become the best performance of photovoltaic enterprises in the company. Longji earn more, run fast, although the volume is large, but do not lose growth, this is the fundamental reason for it to become the photovoltaic grass.However, the stock selection hall thought that photovoltaic hydrogen production is currently mainly in the hype concept and theme stage, from the ground root, and then to promote the development of productivity, there is a certain distance. Let's look at the data. In 2020, only 9,000 hydrogen fuel cells were sold in the world, of which 1,497 were sold in China, which is still too small.Obviously, the infrastructure of hydrogen fuel cells is not perfect at the present stage, and the supporting process of fuel cell infrastructure is more difficult than charging piles, because it is easy to pull wires and it is a mature power grid, but the hydrogen supply chain is not mature yet. So hydrogen doesn't look good in 2021.

However, for Longji shares, stock selection hall still value the status of photovoltaic, rather than hydrogen production.After all, hydrogen energy is still in the early stage of application, and there is still a long way to go in the future, so it is difficult to realize the performance. But in the long term, we can pay due attention to hydrogen energy.



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