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隆基股份再定850亿营收目标
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           4月20日, 隆基股份发布2020年报告和2021年一季度报告,2020年隆基股份实现营业收入545.83亿元,同比增长65.92%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润85.52亿元,同比增长61.99%;2021年1-3月,隆基股份实现营业收入158.54亿元,同比增长84.36%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润25.02亿元,同比增长34.24%。笔者注意到,2020年受特殊时期和原辅料价格飙升的影响,隆基股份不仅业绩超预期,而且首登硅片与组件出货“双冠王”宝座。在此基础上,隆基股份还制定了2021年850亿元的营业收入新目标。值得关注的是,当多数企业仍在光伏圈里打转时,隆基股份已经“出圈”,跨入BIPV(光伏建筑一体化)和光伏制氢领域。其先是以超16亿元入股森特股份(603098.SH),紧接着携手私募巨头朱雀投资成立氢能公司,并与中国石化达成战略合作。
       在隆基股份看来,这一系列动作是对光伏产业链的延伸,其进一步布局新的应用场景,并在“碳中和”时代机遇下寻找到新的业绩增长点。4月21日,隆基股份方面对最新业绩给予说明,透露了公司落下两枚“棋子”的逻辑及部分细节。
2020年,隆基股份的收入主要来自上游硅片和中游组件,两者的销售收入分别为140.97亿元和352.13亿元,境内外平均销售毛利率分别为32.73%和20.33%。从出货上看,2020年硅片和组件出货分别为58.15GW(含自用)和24.53GW(含自用),位居全球第一。
过去十年,光伏市场集中化程度持续提升,竞争格局不断重构。隆基股份笃定光伏单晶技术路线,从硅片做起,并于2014年收购浙江乐叶以进入电池组件领域,逐渐形成了垂直一体化产能。在业内,其不仅树立起行业上游的话语权,还逐渐将下游电站终端客户尽收囊中。如今,隆基股份已经从一个名不见经传的小企业,蜕变成为全球光伏制造商领先企业。2021年1月,胡润研究院发布《2020胡润世界500强》,隆基股份排名第369位,为榜单中唯一主营光伏业务的企业。
          过往皆序章。2021年,隆基股份再定新目标。根据2021年规划,隆基股份预计单晶硅片出货80GW(含自用),组件出货量40GW(含自用)。笔者注意到,这是一组近乎翻倍的数字,高出中环股份硅片出货目标,也高出晶科能源、晶澳科技和天合光能等企业制定的组件出货目标。
与此同时,2021年,隆基股份还制定了新经营目标,计划实现营业收入850亿元,预计同比增长55.73%。在2020年度暨2021年第一季度业绩说明会上,隆基股份董事长钟宝申表示,850亿元营收目标主要包括:硅片业务约220亿元、组件业务约560亿元和其他业务约70亿元。这是经过评估市场之后确定的目标,相信可以完成。当下,不少光伏同行试图通过210尺寸变革,改变整个竞争格局。对此,钟宝申透露,公司不会再扩大组件产品尺寸了,这会使客户的收益和风险严重不对等。在2021年硅料价格仍居高不下的环境下,隆基股份强化垂直一体化产能,以控制成本、抵御风险。根据隆基股份披露,2020年公司硅片、电池和组件分别为85GW、30GW和50GW,到2021年规划硅片、电池和组件产能约105GW、38GW和65GW。在电池技术方面,钟宝申还透露,隆基在2021年年底会投产两种新技术路线的电池,分别应用于地面电站和分布式电站,效率要高于目前水平。
    


        光伏赛道上的持续增长力,使隆基股份成为资本市场上一颗闪耀明星。近两年,隆基股份一直受到资本市场关注,2020年12月,高瓴资本豪掷158亿元入股。截至4月21日收盘,隆基股份股价为92.44元/股,总市值3574亿元。伴随“碳中和”冲锋号响起,隆基股份选择在光伏主业基础上,进军BIPV和光伏制氢。在隆基股份看来,这并非蹭热点,也并非一时兴起,而是遵循企业自身的发展思路。所谓BIPV,即将光伏产品集成到建筑上的技术,也就是光伏建筑一体化,如光伏幕墙;而光伏制氢,即指利用光伏发电和电解水组合制氢。当前,应对全球气候变化成为人类社会最大的共识,已超过120多个国家设立了“碳中和”目标。2020年9月,我国提出了“二氧化碳排放力争2030年前达到峰值,努力争取2060年前实现碳中和”的目标。隆基股份品牌总经理王英歌告诉笔者:“在碳中和目标下,减碳目标落实的重要领域涉及能源、工业、交通和建筑四大核心领域。因此,对于光伏而言,减碳不能仅仅立足于原来的地面、工商业和户用三大市场了,这没有完全覆盖光伏的全部应用场景,也不能完全支撑实现碳中和,要拓展新光伏应用场景。他进一步解释,隆基股份在能源和交通领域看好氢能应用。权威机构预测,2050年氢能在全球能源结构占比达到18%,是一种清洁的二次能源,可应用于商用车、飞机、轮渡和重卡等。此外,在建筑领域,除了传统屋顶光伏,BIPV也迎来较大增长空间,可替代建材、彩钢瓦屋顶。这些布局是隆基全面梳理后的一个逻辑。
“    碳中和”带来新生态、新场景,也意味着新机会。继2020年发布BIPV产品后,隆基股份于2021年3月以16.35亿元作价收购森特股份27.25%股份,交易完成后,隆基股份成为森特股份第二大股东。这次收购将有助于双方业务融合,充分发挥森特股份在建筑屋顶设计、维护上的优势,同时结合隆基股份在BIPV产品制造上的优势,开拓绿色公共建筑市场业务。钟宝申表示,在碳达峰、碳中和目标的引领下,国内大部分省份和地区已经明确了将在“十四五”期间大力推广并发展绿色建筑,其中北京和南京两地陆续公布了具有吸引力的补贴政策,以推动本地区的绿色建筑发展。随着绿色建筑标准的持续完善和光伏制造成本的不断下降,预计BIPV市场有望成为全球新兴蓝海市场,发展潜力巨大。2021年,公司的BIPV产品出货规划400MW。隆基股份创始人、总裁李振国表示,我们希望在四五年内将BIPV业务打造成一个每年营收超百亿的业务板块。
 

       

       除了BIPV,隆基股份的涉氢业务同样引发外界关注。据介绍,隆基股份早在2018年就开始关注可再生能源电解制氢,并与国内、海外知名科研机构、权威专家进行了深入的研发课题合作,在电解制氢装备、光伏制氢等领域形成了技术积累。不难发现,隆基股份的董事长与创始人的行程也透露了部分信号。2020年3月,钟宝申赴大同调研氢燃料电池企业。同年9月,李振国在上交所公开课采访中便提及,“最近在研究氢能”。
紧接着,2021年3月31日,隆基股份正式成立西安隆基氢能科技有限公司;4月20日,无锡隆基氢能科技有限公司成立,由西安隆基氢能科技有限公司100%持股。
          
王英歌透露,隆基股份定位绿氢装备技术解决方案,包括电解槽等成套设备和解决方案。这是隆基擅长的制造技术领域,也是公司在氢能领域的主要立足点。 王英歌还表示,公司的制氢装备会在2021年具备规模化产能,目标也要做到行业技术领先,并在第四季度形成领先产能。

事实上,目前氢能市场仍处于商业化的导入阶段,能够真正盈利的企业少之甚少,隆基股份布局制氢设备符合当下现实行情。4月13日,隆基股份与中国石化签署战略合作协议,双方通过全方位协同,在分布式光伏、光伏+绿氢、化工材料等多领域形成深度的合作关系,共同开拓清洁能源应用市场。按照中国石化的战略目标,公司将加快打造为“油气氢电非”(油品、天然气、氢燃料、充换电、非油品)综合能源服务商。“十四五”期间,中国石化规划建成1000座加氢站。 王英歌说,隆基股份将为中国石化提供光伏组件、分布式及地面电站解决方案和氢能设备解决方案。




On April 20, Longji issued the report for 2020 and the report for the first quarter of 2021. In 2020, Longji achieved an operating income of 54.583 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 65.92%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 8.552 billion yuan, up 61.99% year on year;From January to March 2021, Longji Group achieved an operating income of 15.854 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 84.36%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 2.502 billion yuan, up 34.24% year on year.The author noted that in 2020, affected by the special period and the soaring price of raw materials, Longji shares not only exceed expectations, but also the first silicon wafer and module shipment "double crown" throne. On this basis, Longji shares also set a new operating revenue target of 85 billion yuan in 2021.It is worth noting that while most enterprises are still in the photovoltaic circle, Longji shares have been "out of the circle", into the BIPV (photovoltaic building integration) and photovoltaic hydrogen production field. It first invested more than 1.6 billion yuan in Cent shares (603098.sh), and then invested with private equity giant Zhuque to establish a hydrogen energy company, and reached a strategic cooperation with Sinopec.

In Longi's view, this series of actions is the extension of the photovoltaic industry chain, its further layout of new application scenarios, and in the "carbon neutral" era opportunities to find new performance growth points. April 21, Longji shares on the latest performance to give instructions, revealed the company fell two "pieces of logic" and some details.

In 2020, Longji's revenue mainly comes from upstream silicon wafers and midstream components, whose sales revenue is 14.097 billion yuan and 35.213 billion yuan respectively, and the average gross sales margin at home and abroad is 32.73% and 20.33% respectively. In terms of shipments, wafer and component shipments in 2020 are respectively 58.15GW (including self-use) and 24.53GW (including self-use), ranking first in the world.

Over the past decade, the concentration of the photovoltaic market has continued to improve, and the competitive landscape has been constantly restructured. Longi is committed to the photovoltaic single crystal technology route, starting from silicon wafer, and acquired Zhejiang Leye in 2014 to enter the field of battery modules, gradually forming a vertical integration capacity. In the industry, it has not only established the right to speak in the upstream of the industry, but also gradually acquired all the downstream terminal customers of power stations. Today, Longji has transformed from a little-known small enterprise to a leading global photovoltaic manufacturer. In January 2021, Hurun Research Institute released the "2020 Hurun Global 500", and Longi ranked No. 369 in the list, which was the only enterprise mainly engaged in photovoltaic business.

The past is all prologue.In 2021, Longji shares to set a new target.According to the 2021 plan, Longi expects to ship 80GW of mono-crystalline silicon wafers (including self-use) and 40GW of components (including self-use).I note that this is a set of nearly double figures, higher than CMC's wafer shipment target and higher than the module shipment targets set by JinkoSolar, JA Technology and Trina Solar.

At the same time, in 2021, Longji shares also formulated a new business target, the plan to achieve 85 billion yuan of operating income, is expected to increase by 55.73%. In 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, Longji's chairman Zhong Baoshen said that the target revenue of 85 billion yuan mainly includes: silicon wafer business about 22 billion yuan, component business about 56 billion yuan and other business about 7 billion yuan.This is a target determined after the evaluation of the market, and I believe it can be achieved.At present, many photovoltaic peers are trying to change the whole competitive landscape through 210 size revolution. In this regard, Zhong Baoshen revealed that the company will not expand the size of component products, which will make the benefits and risks of customers seriously unequal. Under the environment of high silicon prices in 2021, Longi will strengthen its vertically integrated production capacity to control costs and fend off risks. According to the disclosure of Longi Co., Ltd. in 2020, the company's silicon wafers, batteries and modules will be 85GW, 30GW and 50GW respectively. By 2021, the company plans to produce about 105GW, 38GW and 65GW of silicon wafers, batteries and modules.In terms of battery technology, Zhong also revealed that Longi will put into production two new technology lines of batteries by the end of 2021, one for ground power stations and the other for distributed power stations, with higher efficiency than the current level.

Photovoltaic track on the continuous growth force, so that Longji shares become a shining star in the capital market. In the past two years, Longji shares have been attracting the attention of the capital market. In December 2020, Hillhouse Capital invested 15.8 billion yuan to become a shareholder. As of April 21, the stock price of Longji was 92.44 yuan per share, with a total market value of 357.4 billion yuan.With the sound of "carbon neutral" charge, Longi shares chose to enter BIPV and photovoltaic hydrogen production on the basis of the main industry. In the view of Longji shares, this is not a hot spot, nor is it a whim, but to follow the development of their own ideas.The so-called BIPV is the technology of integrating photovoltaic products into buildings, that is, the integration of photovoltaic buildings, such as photovoltaic curtain walls; Photovoltaic hydrogen production refers to the combination of photovoltaic power generation and water electrolysis to produce hydrogen. At present, tackling global climate change has become the biggest consensus of human society, and more than 120 countries have set the goal of being "carbon neutral". In September 2020, China put forward the goal of "striving to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060". Longji brand general manager Wang Yingge told the author: "under the carbon neutral target, carbon



 reduction target implementation of the important areas involving energy, industry, transportation and construction of the four core areas. Therefore, for photovoltaic, carbon reduction cannot only be based on the original ground, industrial and commercial and household markets, which does not fully cover all application scenarios of photovoltaic, nor can fully support the realization of carbon neutrality. New photovoltaic application scenarios should be expanded.He further explained that Longji shares in the field of energy and transportation optimistic about hydrogen energy applications. It is predicted by authoritative agencies that hydrogen energy will account for 18% of the global energy mix by 2050. It is a clean secondary energy that can be used in commercial vehicles, aircraft, ferries and heavy trucks. In addition, in the field of architecture, in addition to the traditional roof photovoltaic, BIPV also ushered in a greater growth space, can replace the building materials, color steel tile roof. These layouts are a logic after Longji's comprehensive carding.

"Carbon neutrality" opens up new ecosystems, new scenarios, and new opportunities.Following the release of BIPV products in 2020, Longji acquired 27.25% of Cent shares at a price of 1.635 billion yuan in March 2021. Upon completion of the transaction, Longji shares became the second largest shareholder of Cent shares. The acquisition will contribute to the business integration of the two parties, giving full play to the advantages of Cent in building roof design and maintenance, while combining with the advantages of Longi in BIPV product manufacturing, to expand the business in the green public building market.Under the guidance of the goal of reaching a carbon peak and being carbon neutral, most provinces and regions in China have made it clear that they will vigorously promote and develop green buildings during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with Beijing and Nanjing announcing attractive subsidy policies to promote green building development in their regions, Zhong said. With the continuous improvement of green building standards and the continuous decline of photovoltaic manufacturing costs, the BIPV market is expected to become an emerging global blue ocean market with huge development potential. In 2021, the company's BIPV product shipment plan is 400MW."We hope to build the BIPV business into a business segment with annual revenue of more than 10 billion yuan in four to five years," said Li Zhenguo, founder and president of Longji.


除了BIPV,隆基股份的涉氢业务同样引发外界关注。据介绍,隆基股份早在2018年就开始关注可再生能源电解制氢,并与国内、海外知名科研机构、权威专家进行了深入的研发课题合作,在电解制氢装备、光伏制氢等领域形成了技术积累。不难发现,隆基股份的董事长与创始人的行程也透露了部分信号。2020年3月,钟宝申赴大同调研氢燃料电池企业。同年9月,李振国在上交所公开课采访中便提及,“最近在研究氢能”。
紧接着,2021年3月31日,隆基股份正式成立西安隆基氢能科技有限公司;4月20日,无锡隆基氢能科技有限公司成立,由西安隆基氢能科技有限公司100%持股。
          
王英歌透露,隆基股份定位绿氢装备技术解决方案,包括电解槽等成套设备和解决方案。这是隆基擅长的制造技术领域,也是公司在氢能领域的主要立足点。 王英歌还表示,公司的制氢装备会在2021年具备规模化产能,目标也要做到行业技术领先,并在第四季度形成领先产能。

事实上,目前氢能市场仍处于商业化的导入阶段,能够真正盈利的企业少之甚少,隆基股份布局制氢设备符合当下现实行情。4月13日,隆基股份与中国石化签署战略合作协议,双方通过全方位协同,在分布式光伏、光伏+绿氢、化工材料等多领域形成深度的合作关系,共同开拓清洁能源应用市场。按照中国石化的战略目标,公司将加快打造为“油气氢电非”(油品、天然气、氢燃料、充换电、非油品)综合能源服务商。“十四五”期间,中国石化规划建成1000座加氢站。 王英歌说,隆基股份将为中国石化提供光伏组件、分布式及地面电站解决方案和氢能设备解决方案。








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