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隆基股份:在“碳中和”背景下光伏底子厚,股价不言底。
返回列表 来源: 全民光伏 发布日期: 2021.04.16 浏览次数:

         最近在“碳中和”背景下,电力板块炒作如火如荼,然而,纵然有这惊天利好消息,光伏龙头隆基股份的股价表现,那只能用一句话来形容:活猪不怕开水烫,一心冲往地板上! 有投资者不禁要问,隆基股价天天跌,什么时候到头?  哎,这话问得很专业!为什么这么说,因为他没有问股价是不是要崩盘!  那么什么时候到头呢?  先说一下:隆基股份公司主营业务为单晶硅棒、硅片、电池和组件的研发、生产和销售,以及光伏地面电站和分布式电站的投资开发、建设及运营业务,其中,2020年中报里,组件和硅片收入达到了90%以上。
  隆基本轮轰轰烈烈的牛市行情启动于2018年10月底,此时股价在9元附近,而在此之前,隆基股份股价刚刚经历了一轮大跌,从22元直接摔到9元,凶悍!  从8月底到10月底,2个月时间都是震荡;从10月底开始到到2019年2月底,4个月时间股价再次站上此前的高低20元附间。 自2019年3月份开始,股价开启震荡模式,直到2019年9月底,股价一波杀跌,到11月开始企稳后又开始一波拉升,即使国内疫情暴发都没有挡住隆基股份股价上涨的步伐,但是中美贸易战却让股民上了一课,股价竟然从3月一路阴跌,从31到21,近33%。   2020年3月底的股价也是近一年的低点,从3月底开始,随着国内疫情得到控制,隆基股份的股价也企稳了,5月上旬,隆基股份的股价就收复失地,重返30元上方;5月一波横盘整理,6月份开启连涨模式,虽然中间略有调整但是相较于涨的幅度几乎可以忽略不计,直到2021年2月18号最高股价125元,从21到125,股价一年内几乎6倍的涨幅。
  从股价走势图和股东结构图,可以看出,股价跌的时候或者横盘的时候就是股东数减少的时候,股价增长的时候就是股东数增加的时候; 而从隆基股份2020年三季报也可以看出,随着股价的上涨,职业炒家公募基金兴全合润也在逐步减仓。  所以,只要股价涨起来了,都说好的企业,股价表现也不一定好;等到股价跌了,光伏产能过剩的信息又漫天飞了。
  3月19号报于78.96元,隆基股份的股价已经较高点125.68元回撤37%,从技术图看已经触及第一支撑位,但是看趋势明显要向下看到62元一线。
  那么到底到底了吗?难言企稳,趋势明显向下,但是业绩如此好,前景也乐观的企业怎么也有投资价值,股价再次腾飞也只是时间问题。老话说得好,人多的地方不去! 所以,对于已经持仓的,都这个熊样了,也就当存钱了,放那里别管了。对于没有持仓的,好公司有很多,不必天天盯着它,来日方长。

Recently in the "carbon neutral" background, the electric power plate speculation in full swing, however, even if there is this amazing good news, the stock price performance of the photovoltaic leading Longji shares, that can only be described in a word: live pigs are not afraid of boiling water, rushed to the floor! Some investors can not help but ask, Longji stock price falls every day, when the end?Well, that's a professional question! Why? Because he didn't ask if the stock was going to crash!So when does it end? The main business of Longi Co., Ltd. is research, development, production and sales of monocrystal silicon rods, wafers, batteries and modules, as well as investment, development, construction and operation of photovoltaic ground power stations and distributed power stations. The revenue of modules and wafers reached more than 90% in the mid-2020 report.

Longji's current bull market started at the end of October 2018, when its share price was around 9 yuan. Before that, Longji's share price just experienced a sharp drop from 22 yuan to 9 yuan, ferocious! From the end of August to the end of October, there were shocks for 2 months.From the end of October to the end of February 2019, the stock price in 4 months stood at the previous high and low of 20 yuan plus again. Since March 2019, shares opened oscillation mode, until the end of September 2019, shares of a wave, an exodus to November after stabilizing began a wave of lift, even if domestic outbreak did not block the pace of longji shares rose, but a trade war with China is a lesson for the shareholder, shares Yin fell all the way from march, from 31 to 21, nearly 33%.The stock price at the end of March 2020 was also the low point in nearly a year. Since the end of March, with the domestic epidemic under control, the stock price of Longji Stock also stabilized. In early May, the stock price of Longji Stock recovered the lost ground and returned to above 30 yuan. A wave of horizontal consolidation took place in May and continued to rise in June. Although there was a slight adjustment in the middle, the increase was almost negligible. The highest stock price was 125 yuan on February 18, 2021, from 21 to 125, the stock price increased by almost 6 times in one year.

From the stock price trend chart and shareholder structure chart, it can be seen that when the stock price falls or moves sideways, the number of shareholders decreases, and when the stock price increases, the number of shareholders increases. And from Longji shares in the third quarter of 2020 can also be seen, with the rise of the stock price, professional speculators public offering fund Xing Quan Run is also gradually reduced positions. Therefore, as long as the stock price rises, all the good companies, the stock price performance is not necessarily good;Wait until the stock price fell, PV overcapacity information and flying.

At 78.96 yuan on March 19, Longji's stock price has retreated 37% from the high of 125.68 yuan. From the technical chart, it has touched the first support level, but the trend is obvious to see the line of 62 yuan downward.

So is this the end?It is hard to say that the trend has stabilized and is clearly downward, but it is only a matter of time before a company with such good performance and an optimistic outlook is worth investing in. As the old saying goes, where there are many people, don't go!So, to already hold a position, all this bear kind, also be to save money, put there don't take care of. For no positions, there are a lot of good companies, do not have to stare at it every day, the future is long.



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