基本情况：

Ø 组件出货量20G，成为全行业第一，今年组件有望继续维持市场第一。

Ø 硅片：隆基股份抓住了市场需求切换的机遇，去年一季度硅片毛利率40%，全年平均在30-35%。

行业展望

Ø 行业去年是分水岭，今年进入大发展阶段的过渡期。过去光伏行业高度依赖补贴，今年开始国内进入平价阶段，海外在加速去补贴。

Ø 光伏在十四五期间摆脱补贴的同时解决销纳问题，储能配套要跟上。十四五对全球来说都是过度期，随着光伏+储能经济型提升，叠加销纳问题改善，需求应该有大发展。

Ø 今年同比增长有30%，去年有部分需求顺延到今年。一季度市场淡季不淡，春节前项目有抢装（因为担心疫情影响节后装机），行业内备货多，价格环比没怎么下降。

Ø 全年需求节奏前低后高，国内下半年要起来，二季度需求主要靠海外支持。

今年各业务板块扩产的情况？

Ø 今年年报会集中披露。目前看硅棒硅片在建曲靖1期10G，2期20G，1期主要是今年放量，到年中公司产能到100G，2期4季度可以释放，总产能达到110G+

Ø 电池端：银川3G，曲靖10，新公布的咸宁项目15G，后两个项目从今年4Q开始，集中释放看2022年。银川3G今年可以完成。

Ø 组件两个新项目达产后产能到50G，对应明年电池片会有65G，因此组件后续还会扩，目前还在和政府谈，应该在现有基地扩产。

电池扩产选择什么路线？

Ø TOPCON和HIT都是根据N型硅片，公司层面现在没有障碍，现有设备可以同时生产N和P，主要区别是掺杂物，切片环节没有差异。

Ø 电池环节三个基地都是N型路线，今年3Q或者3Q公布路线，肯定是前沿技术的一种，在关键环节形成了突破。PERC产能已经到了效率极限，要对新电池路线布局。

Ø 公司布局多种电池路线，实验室储备很多，三个基地可能是同一个技术路线，也可能是不同的。电池技术路线进入到开放式阶段，要看各企业是否能在技术上进行突破，或者是融合。在目前情况下要看研发实力和设备。

供应链的风险

Ø 玻璃和硅料都是紧平衡的状态。如果4Q需求集中爆发可能会带来去年4Q类似的情况，给制造端带来压力。

Ø 玻璃2Q开始持续有产能投放。玻璃端隆基锁了60%，今年组件竞争激烈，各家都会拿最有性价比的产品出来，包括双面和大尺寸，去年隆基双玻就有50%。

Ø 硅料产能建设期长。隆基锁了硅料70-80%的需求，剩余的量有和小硅料厂在沟通，能够保证供应。新特，通威，大全，东方希望，OCI（马来）都是供应商，其中前四个都是比较大的量。

超白浮法玻璃可以替代多少背板玻璃？全年玻璃价格和硅料价格怎么看？

Ø 超白浮法玻璃在双面组件里有20%的水平，用在背面，和光伏玻璃功率差0.3%，性价比非常好，现在是一个替代方案，后续光伏玻璃产能充裕的话还是会切换会光伏玻璃，不过浮法有13%的价差优势，是很好的替代品。

Ø 预估玻璃和硅料分别是30-40/  80-90，但是如果行业需求集中爆发会很容易突破这个价位。宽版玻璃价格可能维持高位。

大尺寸组件

Ø 大尺寸不存在技术壁垒，主要是不同企业的成本回报问题，很多线需要做改造，很多企业都做了资产减值损失。

Ø 尺寸上的变化要告一段落，下一步是对更深层次的技术变化的投资。尺寸的提升实在PERC出现瓶颈时的过度提升手段。

Ø 隆基的新产线都是182/210的产线。旧产线需要改造，但是只是热场部件需要改。尺寸切换对隆基影响很小。组件主要是推182的。166短期不会很快退出。

颗粒硅

Ø 去年就在持续验证，现在看还有一些主要问题比如金属杂质高等，影响硅片品质。颗粒料有的经过脱氢处理后效果会好一些，可以做参杂，但是颗粒料不会超过今年总需求的4%。

Ø 现在颗粒料报价低15%，所以愿意去验证，但是用量太少，不好说是否在拉单晶这个环节能降本。如果颗粒料产品能成熟，生产成本能比块状料低30%。

Ø 连续投料“CCV ”技术公司研发成功了，但是还是传统“RCC ”技术具备更好的性价比。现在还不好说是不是颗粒硅的连续投料能更省成本（提问人说能下降20%），颗粒硅产品还不成熟。

Ø 隆基采购设备是看未来而不是现在。看未来技术升级需求是否能够满足，所以公司设计产能的时候都预留了CCV的借口，所以颗粒料带来的设备改造需求很有限。

未来三年全球光伏格局和成本下降趋势

Ø 国内十四五的定位是全面实现平价，从补贴期进入平价，行业度电成本因为竞争的因素而继续快速下降。海外类似，行业快速发展。

Ø 中国提出碳中和目标以后国有企业对光伏的相关投资展现了很大热情，预计十四五很可能政治推动下有超预期的需求。

Ø 欧洲也是进入市场化阶段，光伏市场需求在海外也会持续提升。中东也在大力布局光伏+储能的布局。随着光伏进步度电成本会继续下降。储能在未来两年也会有突破，光储一体的经济性也能出来。不排除2023年光储一体拉动需求爆发。BIPV市场也有望高速增长。

Ø 2025年后随着销纳问题和传统能源存量问题解决，市场需求进入快速发展，随后会逐渐放缓。

Ø 成本端去年国内度电成本下降了5%，今年还能下降5%。

硅片设备采购和友商有什么不同？能够做设备定制化？

Ø 公司在单晶炉制造上自研主控系统，其他是供应商根据要求定制的，降低了设备成本也保证了技术的领先性。

Ø 现在在尝试把上游的模式复制到电池和组件环节，两三年前就开始考虑这个方向。

Ø 电池和组件的差异化低，隆基希望能形成一些突破，在实验室都有做，要及时导入新产线。  已经有突破。PERC产线里就有自主研发设备，比设备供应商提供的效率要高很多。

Basic information:

Ø component shipments of 20 g, become the industry first, the components of this year is expected to continue to maintain the market first.

Ø silicon: longji shares seize the opportunity of the market demand to switch, silicon chip in the first quarter gross margin of 40% last year, the year in 30-35% on average.

Industry outlook

Ø industry last year was a watershed, this year in large development phase of transition.In the past, the photovoltaic industry was highly dependent on subsidies. This year, China began to enter the parity stage, while overseas subsidies are being accelerated.

Ø photovoltaic (pv) during the difference to get rid of subsidies XiaoNa problems at the same time, the storage to keep up.The 14th Five-Year Plan is a transitional period for the whole world. With the improvement of PV + energy storage economy and the improvement of superimposed consumption, demand should have a great development.

Ø year-on-year growth of 30% this year, last year moved to some demand this year.In the first quarter, the slack season was not weak. Before the Spring Festival, there was a rush to install the project (because of the fear that the epidemic would affect the post-festival installation). There were many stocks in the industry, and the price did not decline much compared with the previous quarter.

Low after high before the requirements of Ø rhythm, will rise up to the second half of the domestic demand in the second quarter mainly rely on support of overseas.

This year each business plate expansion of the situation?

Ø annual report this year will focus on disclosure.At present, silicon rods and silicon wafers are under construction in Qujing Phase 1 of 10G and Phase 2 of 20G. Phase 1 is mainly to be released this year, and the company's production capacity will reach 100G by the middle of the year. Phase 2 can be released in the fourth quarter, with a total production capacity of 110G+

Ø battery terminal: yinchuan 3 g, qujing 10, 15 g, xianning project released new after two projects from the beginning of the year 4 q, concentrated release in 2022. Yinchuan 3G can be completed this year.

Ø components of two new projects after the capacity to 50 g, corresponding battery next year will have 65 g, so components will enlarge follow-up, and the government is still talk, should base on existing expansion.

What route should we choose for battery expansion?

Ø TOPCON and HIT are based on n-type silicon wafer, the corporate level there is no obstacle, existing equipment can produce N and P, at the same time the main difference is that the dopant, sliced link no difference.

Ø battery link three bases are N route, this year 3 q or released 3 q route, affirmation is a kind of cutting-edge technology, the key link to form the breakthrough. PERC capacity has reached the efficiency limit, to the layout of the new battery route.

Ø company a variety of cell line layout, laboratory reserves many, three base may be the same technical route, also may be different. Battery technology route into the open stage, to see whether the enterprise can make a breakthrough in technology, or is fusion.In the current situation, it depends on R&D strength and equipment.

Supply Chain Risks

Ø glass and silicon material is tight balance state.If 4Q demand erupts in a concentrated way, it may bring the situation similar to last year's 4Q, putting pressure on the manufacturing end.

2 q Ø glass start to have capacity on continuously.Glass end long lock 60%, this year the component competition is fierce, each will take the most cost-effective products out, including double-sided and large size, last year long double glass had 50%.

Ø silicon material capacity construction period is long.Longji has secured 70-80% of the demand for silicon materials, and we are communicating with small silicon factories to ensure the supply of the remaining amount. Xinte, Tong Wei, Daquan, Dongfang Hope, OCI (Malaysia) are all suppliers, the first four of which are relatively large quantities.

Super white float glass can replace how much back glass?How does annual glass price and silicon material price look?

Ø ultra clear float glass has 20%, in double component used in the back, and photovoltaic power difference 0.3% glass, cost performance is very good, is now an alternative, subsequent photovoltaic abundant capacity will switch will photovoltaic glass, float 13% of the price advantage, however, is a good substitute.

Ø forecast glass and silicon material is 30-40/80-90 respectively, but if industry demand concentrated outbreak will be very easy to break through this price. Wide-plate glass prices are likely to remain high.

Large size assembly

Ø large size there is no technical barriers, mainly is the cost of different enterprises return problems, many line needs to be done to reform, many enterprises have made asset impairment losses.

Ø size change must come to an end, the next step is to investment in deeper technological change.The size of the promotion is PERC bottleneck when excessive promotion means.

Ø longji is 182/210 of the new production line to production line.The old production line needs to be modified, but only the thermal field parts need to be modified. Size switching has little effect on the clones.The components are mainly for pushing 182. It will not exit anytime soon.

Silicon particles

Ø continues to verify last year, now look at some major problems such as higher metal impurity, affect the quality of silicon wafers.Granular material some of the effect after dehydrogenation treatment will be a few better, can do mixed mixed, but granular material won't exceed the 4% of total demand this year.

Ø grain 15% lower now, so want to verify, but the amount is too little, can not say whether in crystal pulling this link authors.If the pellet product can mature, the production cost can be 30% lower than the block material.

Ø continuous feeding "CCV" technology company developed, but the traditional "RCC" technology has better cost performance.It is not yet clear whether the continuous feeding of granular silicon would be more cost-effective (the questioner said it could reduce costs by 20%), and granular silicon products are not yet ready.

Ø longji purchase equipment is the future rather than now.It depends on whether the future technology upgrading demand can be met, so the company reserved the excuse of CCV when designing the production capacity, so the equipment transformation demand brought by granule material is very limited.

Global PV pattern and cost decline trend in the next three years

Ø domestic difference positioning is the comprehensive implementation of parity, from subsidies to phase to parity, industry KWH cost continues to decline rapidly because of the competitive factors. Overseas similar, rapid development of the industry.

Ø state-owned enterprises after China carbon neutral target for pv related investment showed great enthusiasm, expected difference is likely to demand political driven by more than expected.

Ø Europe is also entered the stage of marketization, pv market demand abroad will continue to improve.The Middle East is also vigorously layout photovoltaic + energy storage layout. The cost per kilowatt hour will continue to fall as photovoltaic advances.Energy storage will also make a breakthrough in the next two years, and the economic efficiency of optical storage will also come out. Do not rule out 2023 light storage as a whole to drive the outbreak of demand.The BIPV market is also expected to grow rapidly.

Ø as XiaoNa after 2025 and traditional energy stock problems solved, the market demand into fast development, then gradually slow down.

Ø cost end domestic KWH cost decreased by 5% last year, this year could fall by 5%.

What is the difference between purchasing silicon wafer equipment and friendly business?Can do equipment customization?

Ø company master control system, the research on single crystal furnace manufacturing is other suppliers according to the requirements, reduce the equipment cost also ensures the leading technology.

Ø now trying to copy the pattern of upstream to the battery and component link, two or three years ago began to consider in this direction.

Ø batteries and components of low differentiation, longji hope to be able to form some breakthrough, has done in the laboratory, to import new production line in time. There has been a breakthrough.PERC production line has independent research and development equipment, than the equipment suppliers to provide much higher efficiency.