据央视，今天上午9点30分，全国碳排放权交易在上海环境能源交易所正式启动。9点30分，首笔全国碳交易已经撮合成功，价格为每吨52.78元，总共成交16万吨，交易额为790万元。据悉，首批参与全国碳排放权交易的发电行业重点排放单位超过了2162家，这些企业碳排放量超过40亿吨二氧化碳，意味着中国的碳排放权交易市场，将成为全球覆盖温室气体排放量规模最大的碳市场。
碳交易所到底会有什么影响？
1.碳交易所如何影响碳排放？
碳交易所主要有两个交易品种：碳配额和CCER。其中碳配额是市场的硬通货，CCER相对来说是一种补充机制，受政策影响更大。碳交易所的目标是通过市场化的碳价去影响企业的成本，碳价越高碳排放量就会越少。简单来说，当碳价提升，会提高企业的成本，当企业的利润减少甚至亏钱了之后，就会主动减产，从而降低碳排放的量。另外，也会推动企业升级设备，降低单位能耗。
2.碳排放的行业分布情况？
根据国家能源局的数据，我国2019年碳排放的行业占比中，电力行业占了43%。而此次碳交易所纳入的首批行业也正是电力行业。十四五期间还将纳入建材、钢铁、有色等行业，未来碳交易所将几乎涵盖所有的主要碳排放行业。

3.碳配额如何确定？
上文提到碳交易所的交易标的分为两大类：政府分配的碳排放权和国家核证资源减排量（CCER），究竟是什么？以及配额如何计算？
1）碳配额：就是企业获得的碳排放额度，初期由相关部门免费发放。
每个企业获得的配额计算公式：机组配额总量 = 供电基准值 * 实际供电量 * 修正系数 + 供热基准值 * 实际供热量（简单来讲，相关部门通过行业的历史排碳强度确定一个基准线，结合企业的产能情况，就可以知道企业的碳排放额度。举个例子，假如电力企业的基准排放强度是1，产能是100度电，可以算出碳排放额度等于100。假如企业通过设备升级使得碳排放量低于行业平均，就会有富余的碳排放额度。假如某龙头企业的实际排放强度仅0.8，发100度电只会消耗80的碳排放额度，那么剩余的额度完全可以拿到市场上交易获利。反过来说，假如企业的碳排放强度高于行业平均水平，则产能都无法开满，需要额外购买碳排放权，导致成本的增加。
2）国家核证自愿减排量：一些经过主管部门申请备案的“减排方法学”，比如新能源、水电、林业碳汇、沼气等254个项目，可以自主申请CCER。但是重点排放单位最多只可以用5%的CCER抵消碳排放配额的缺口，上海碳交易所初期只允许供应CCER的1%于市场，导致价格低迷。需要注意的是，在2017年发改委暂缓受理CCER方法学，导致CCER供给受限，部分交易价格上涨明显。
4.碳排放量如何测量？
各个行业的碳排放量测量方法略有不同，但是中心思想大体分为两种，下面以电力企业为例：
1）直接测量：把在线监测的仪器放在电厂烟气的出口测量气体排放量，目前国内没有采用，主要因为这项技术还没有成熟。
2）分部计算：首先测算消耗化石燃料产生的排放，用了多少化石燃料、多少煤、多少的燃油等，根据一些经验或实测得到元素的含碳量，最后再把二者相乘就得到直接排放量。
5.碳交易所试点的情况？
早在2011年开始，我国8个省市就已经陆续展开了碳交易的试点。但是，各个省市纳入碳交易的行业范围和标准都有不同，从下图可以看出，上海、北京、广东涵盖的行业范围更广。由于纳入的行业和标准不同，比如北京把碳排放量5000吨以上的都纳入了碳交易的范围，因此纳入的单位数量达到了947家；重庆的纳入标准是碳排放量在2万吨以上，因此纳入的单位数量只有230家。这直接导致了各地的碳价格差异也较大，2020年期间，北京市的碳排放配额成交均价在73-87元/吨；同期重庆碳价格仅为5.576元/吨。那么从试点地区的情况来看，影响碳价主要是两个方面：政策和各地不同的经济发展水平。

1）碳市场是一个政策性市场，所以政策是影响碳价最主要的一个环节。试点期间几个区域碳市场都是独立的，意味着每个碳市场都有自己相关的一些政策发布。比如北京纳入企业的标准是年排放量达到5000吨，而上海纳入标准是要达到2万吨以上。
2）北京、上海、重庆、天津、广东、湖北等试点地区的产业结构不一样，所以经济发展水平也不一样，每个地区的减排成本也就造成了价格也是不一样的。
6.未来碳价会上涨吗？
碳价主要受供给和需求同时影响，其中供给总量主要由顶层决定，假如在给定的供给下，需求超出预期，那么碳价就会上涨。参考欧盟，在碳交易推出的初期，碳价波动不大，但是随着法规的完善，欧盟市场碳价最高点达到380元/吨。相比之下，我国在试点期间碳价历史最高点是深圳创下的122.97元/吨。未来随着我国碳交易纳入的行业增多，法规更加完善后，碳价的空间还有很大。

According to CCTV, a nationwide trading of carbon emission rights was officially launched on the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange at 9:30 am today.By 9:30 a.m., the first national carbon deal had been sealed, at 52.78 yuan per ton, for a total of 160,000 tons worth 7.9 million yuan.It is reported that the first batch of key emitters in the power generation industry to participate in the national carbon emission trading more than 2,162 enterprises, the carbon emissions of these enterprises more than 4 billion tons of carbon dioxide, means that China's carbon emission trading market, will become the world's largest carbon market covering greenhouse gas emissions.

What exactly will be the impact of carbon exchanges?

1. How do carbon exchanges affect carbon emissions?

There are two main types of carbon exchange: carbon quota and CCER.Among them, carbon quota is the hard currency of the market, while CCER is a supplementary mechanism, which is more affected by policies. The goal of a carbon exchange is to influence the cost of enterprises through a market-oriented carbon price. The higher the carbon price, the less carbon emissions will be emitted. Simply put, when the carbon price increases, the cost of enterprises will increase. When the profits of enterprises decrease or even the loss of money, they will take the initiative to reduce production, thus reducing the amount of carbon emissions. In addition, it will also encourage enterprises to upgrade equipment and reduce energy consumption per unit.

2. Industrial distribution of carbon emissions?

According to the National Energy Administration, the power sector accounted for 43 percent of China's carbon emissions in 2019.One of the first industries to be included in the carbon exchange is electricity.During the 14th five-year plan period, building materials, steel, non-ferrous and other industries will be included. In the future, the carbon exchange will cover almost all major carbon emission industries.

3. How are carbon quotas determined?

As mentioned above, the trading objects of the carbon exchange are divided into two categories: the carbon emission rights allocated by the government and the national certified Resource Emission Reduction (CCER). And how are quotas calculated?

1) Carbon quota: refers to the carbon emission quota obtained by enterprises, which will be issued free of charge by relevant departments in the initial stage.

Every enterprise quota calculation formula obtained: basic value = total power supply unit quota actual basic value correction coefficient + heating supply * * * actual amount heating (simple, relevant departments through trade carbon intensity to determine a baseline, the history of combining enterprise's production capacity, can know enterprise carbon credits. For example, if the baseline emission intensity of the power company is 1 and the capacity is 100 KWH, the carbon emission allowance can be calculated to be equal to 100. If companies upgrade their equipment to lower their carbon emissions than the industry average, there will be extra credits. If the actual emission intensity of a leading enterprise is only 0.8, generating 100 KWH of electricity will only consume 80 percent of the carbon emission quota, then the remaining quota can be traded in the market for profit. On the other hand, if the carbon emission intensity of the enterprise is higher than the average level of the industry, the capacity cannot be fully opened and additional carbon emission rights need to be purchased, resulting in an increase in costs.

2) Voluntary emission reduction certified by the State: Some "emission reduction methodology" applied for record by the competent authorities, such as new energy, hydropower, forestry carbon sequestration, methane and other 254 projects, can independently apply for CCER. However, key emitters can only use 5% CCER at most to offset the gap of carbon emission quota. The Shanghai Carbon Exchange allowed only 1% CCER to be supplied to the market in the initial stage, leading to low prices. It should be noted that in 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission suspended the acceptance of CCER methodology, resulting in limited supply of CCER and significant increase in some transaction prices.

4. How are carbon emissions measured?

The measurement methods of carbon emissions are slightly different in different industries, but the central ideas are generally divided into two kinds. The following is an example of electric power enterprises:

1) Direct measurement: the on-line monitoring instrument is placed at the outlet of power plant flue gas to measure gas emissions, which is not adopted in China at present, mainly because this technology is not mature.

2) Partial calculation: first calculate the emissions generated by consuming fossil fuels, how much fossil fuels, coal and fuel oil are used, and then calculate the carbon content of elements based on some experience or actual measurement. Finally, multiply the two to get the direct emissions.

5. What about the carbon exchange pilot?

As early as 2011, eight provinces and cities in China have launched carbon trading pilot programs.However, the scope and standards of industries included in carbon trading vary from province to province. As can be seen from the figure below, Shanghai, Beijing and Guangdong cover a wider range of industries. Due to the different industries and standards included, for example, Beijing included all units that emit more than 5,000 tons of carbon in the scope of carbon trading, so the number of units included reached 947; Chongqing's criteria for inclusion is to emit more than 20,000 tons of carbon, so only 230 units will be included.This directly leads to a large difference in carbon prices across the region. During 2020, the average transaction price of carbon emission quota in Beijing is 73-87 yuan/ton. In the same period, the carbon price in Chongqing was only 5.576 yuan per ton.From the perspective of the pilot areas, the carbon price is mainly influenced by two aspects: policies and different economic development levels in different regions.

1) Carbon market is a policy market, so policy is the most important link affecting carbon price.During the pilot period, several regional carbon markets were independent, meaning that each carbon market had its own policy announcements. For example, Beijing's inclusion standard is 5,000 tons of annual emissions, while Shanghai's inclusion standard is 20,000 tons or more.

2) The industrial structure of Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Tianjin, Guangdong, Hubei and other pilot areas is different, so the level of economic development is also different, and the cost of emission reduction in each area is also different.

6. Will carbon prices rise in the future?

The carbon price is mainly affected by both supply and demand, and the total supply is mainly determined by the top level. If the demand exceeds expectations under a given supply, the carbon price will rise. Referring to the European Union, in the early stage of carbon trading, the carbon price fluctuated little, but with the improvement of regulations, the highest carbon price in the European Union market reached 380 yuan/ton.By contrast, China's highest carbon price during the pilot period was 122.97 yuan per ton in Shenzhen. In the future, as more industries are included in China's carbon trading and regulations are more perfect, there is still a lot of room for carbon pricing.