碳交易助推碳经济，哪些产业将受益？我们判断CCER将会在加强限制条件下重启，现有仍需补贴的减排行业有望待重启后获得碳资产交易的增量收益，主要受益行业包括垃圾焚烧、新能源运营商。此外，碳交易有望加速能源结构的低碳化转型，低碳能源类资产的价值中长期趋势向上。
自 2013 年起，我国陆续建立起北京、天津、上海、重庆、湖北、广东、深圳等地的碳排放试点市场，在区域内的碳排放总量和强度控制方面取得显著效果。自2020年以来，建立全国碳排放交易系统相关的政策加速出台，2021 年7月16日全国碳排放权交易市场正式上线。初始阶段，碳交易仅涉及电力行业，同时生态环境部要求加强企业温室气体排放报告管理相关工作，工作范围包括发电、石化、化工、建材、钢铁、有色、造纸、航空等重点排放行业，预计八大高耗能行业有望逐步纳入全国碳交易市场。，预计八大高耗能行业有望逐步纳入全国碳交易市场。
01全球碳定价机制覆盖面持续扩张，欧盟配额供给大幅影响碳价
目前，全球各国家地区政府应对行动中最重要的措施是通过对碳排放定价以控制温室气体排放。据世界银行发布的《2020年碳定价现状与趋势报告》，全球已实施或规划61项碳定价机制，包括31个碳市场交易体系（ETS）和30个碳税机制，涵盖了全球22%的温室气体排放。同时，全球碳价差异巨大，从低于1美元到超过100美元不等，而中国各试点市场碳价普遍大幅低于全球平均水平。回顾欧盟碳排放权交易系统（EU-ETS）的发展历程，配额供给机制对碳价影响重大。EU-ETS是世界首个主要的碳排放交易市场，涵盖约40%的欧盟温室气体排放，其发展历程可分为4个阶段。
第一阶段（2005-2007年），由于供给过剩且阶段1的EUA无法跨阶段使用，价格曾大幅暴跌至0.01欧元/吨。
第二阶段（2008-2012年）的配额供给较多，叠加CERs的冲击，导致价格持续下降至10欧元/吨以下。
第三阶段（2013-2020年），供给逐步收紧，2018年后碳价明显回升，主要措施包括配额每年线性减少1.74%；拍卖比例逐年提高，电力行业100%拍卖，制造业的免费比例从80%逐年递减至30%；信用抵减限制加强，自2013年起欧盟要求CDM只能来自全球最不发达国家；2019年初正式启动市场稳定储备机制（MSR），2019-2023年间24%的剩余配额将放入MSR减少供给。
第四阶段（2021-2030年），配额减少幅度进一步加大。在供给的持续缩减下，欧盟碳价自2021年初以来大幅上涨至50欧元/吨以上。
02碳交易驱动高耗能行业竞争格局加速优化，高能效龙头将受益
从试点到全国，我国7月正式启动发电行业全国碳交易市场。自2013年起，我国陆续建立起北京、天津、上海、重庆、湖北、广东、深圳等地的碳排放试点市场，在区域内的碳排放总量和强度控制方面取得显著效果。自2020年以来，建立全国碳排放交易系统的相关政策加速出台，2021年7月16日全国碳排放权交易市场正式上线，初始阶段仅涉及电力行业，预计发电、石化、化工、建材、钢铁、有色、造纸、航空等八大重点排放行业将逐步纳入全国碳交易市场。
碳交易驱动高耗能行业的竞争格局加速优化，高能效龙头将受益。根据生态环境部于2021年3月发布的《关于加强企业温室气体排放报告管理相关工作的通知》，2021年9月30日前应完成发电行业重点排放单位2019-2020年度的配额核定工作，2021年12月31日前完成配额的清缴履约工作。2019-2020年度配额的分配采用基准值法，配额总量自下而上加总确定，实行全部免费分配。
配额和实际排放数据之间的差异，构成碳资产或履约缺口。对于发电设施的温室气体实际排放情况，主要通过获取和计算发电量、供电量、供热量、供热比、供电煤（气）耗、供热煤（气）耗、供电碳排放强度、供热碳排放强度、运行小时数和负荷（出力）系数等生产信息和数据，确定排放因子，并定期报告排放数据，之后再依据核定结果完成配额的清缴履约义务。
碳交易将直接影响高耗能行业的利润。以电力行业为例，基于假设条件，如按300MW以上常规燃煤机组测算，暂不考虑供热和修正系数的影响，假设度电收入0.4元、毛利率参考2021年5月电力热力生产和供应业毛利率当季值10.79%，若碳价为50元/吨，在履约缺口上限情景下对应碳排超过基准值25%，则发电的毛利润将至多下降25.40%。同时，低能耗优质机组则有望受益于碳资产的交易价值，在碳价50元/吨、单位碳排低于基准值10%的情景下增厚毛利润10.16%。在碳交易的影响下，高耗能行业中存量产能的竞争格局将加速优化，具有能效优势的优质企业将受益于碳资产的增量收益。
03CCER或在加强限制条件下重启，
垃圾焚烧、新能源运营商将受益
CCER目前处于暂停签发状态，项目开发需进行额外性论证。中国核证减排量（CCER）是基于中国温室气体自愿减排计划，根据可再生能源、林业碳汇、甲烷利用等项目的温室气体减排效果进行量化的核证。2013-2017年国家发改委公示CCER审定项目共2871个，备案项目861个，减排量备案项目254个。2017年3月，国家发改委公告暂缓受理CCER方法学、项目、减排量及备案的申请。CCER项目的开发流程沿袭了CDM的思路，主要包括项目文件设计、项目审定、项目备案、项目实施与监测、减排量核查与核证、减排量签发等步骤。值得注意的是，CCER项目开发需进行额外性论证，即项目活动所带来的减排量相对于基准线是否为额外的，项目及其减排量在没有外来的CCER项目支持情况下是否存在财务效益指标、融资渠道、技术风险、市场普及和资源条件方面的障碍因素，依靠项目业主的现有条件难以实现。
现有的254个减排量备案项目主要涉及风电、光伏、沼气利用等行业，其中生活垃圾焚烧的减排量备案项目共涉及4个，现有审定阶段的2871个项目中，生活垃圾焚烧项目共74个。根据4个垃圾焚烧项目的备案减排量信息测算，单位减排量为0.35-1.25吨CO2/MWh，在40元/吨的价格假设下可增厚度电收入0.014-0.05元。
各试点碳交易市场的信用抵消限制条件各异，CCER二级交易主要在上海和广东市场，以协议转让方式交易为主，各项CCER之间差异化程度较高。停止签发导致CCER供给受限，近期部分交易价格上涨明显。2020年上海碳市场可履约CCER均价为20.35元/吨，同比增长175.76%；2021年7月广东CCER（履约）交易价格上涨至超过45元/吨。
我们对CCER年履约需求量进行了测算，估算电力行业碳排放量约46.50亿吨，按全国碳市场5%的信用抵消比例上限，则CCER年履约需求上限为2.33亿吨。由于目前254个项目的已备案减排量仅0.51亿吨，现有存量CCER的供给严重不足，但若全面放开CCER则存在供给过剩、冲击碳价的风险。因此，我们判断CCER将会在加强限制条件下重启，现有仍需补贴的减排行业有望待重启后获得碳资产交易的增量收益，主要受益行业包括垃圾焚烧、新能源运营商。此外，碳交易有望加速能源结构的低碳化转型，低碳能源类资产的价值中长期趋势向上。
在碳交易的影响下，高耗能行业中存量产能的竞争格局将加速优化，具有能效优势的优质企业将受益于碳资产的增量收益，可关注清洁供暖行业；CCER 或在加强限制条件下重启，现有仍需补贴的减排行业有望待 CCER 重启后获得碳资产交易的增量收益，建议关注垃圾焚烧行业、新能源运营行业；碳交易有望加速能源结构的低碳化转型，低碳能源类资产的价值中长期趋势向上，可以关注水电行业。

Carbon trading boosts carbon economy. Which industries will benefit?

Original CAI Yi Li Chunchi new wealth July 29

We judge that CCER will be restarted under strengthened restrictions, and existing emission reduction industries that still need subsidies are expected to gain incremental gains from carbon asset trading after the restart, mainly benefiting industries including waste incineration and new energy operators. In addition, carbon trading is expected to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of energy structure, and the value of low-carbon energy assets is upward in the medium and long term.

Since 2013, China has successively established pilot carbon emission markets in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen, which have achieved remarkable results in controlling the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions in the region. Since 2020, policies related to the establishment of a national carbon emission trading system have been accelerated, and the national carbon emission trading market will be officially launched on July 16, 2021. Initial stage, carbon trading involves only the power industry, ecological environment demand at the same time to strengthen enterprise management related report on greenhouse gas emissions, work include power generation, petrochemical industry, chemical industry, building materials, steel, non-ferrous, papermaking, aviation and other key industries, is expected to eight energy-intensive industry is expected to be gradually incorporated into the national carbon trading market. , eight energy-intensive industries are expected to be gradually incorporated into the national carbon trading market.

The coverage of the global carbon pricing mechanism continues to expand, and the supply of eu quotas significantly affects the carbon price

At present, the most important response of governments around the world is to control greenhouse gas emissions by putting a price on carbon emissions.According to the 2020 Carbon Pricing Status and Trends Report released by the World Bank, 61 carbon pricing mechanisms have been implemented or planned globally, including 31 carbon market trading systems (ETS) and 30 carbon tax mechanisms, covering 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, global carbon prices vary widely, from less than $1 to more than $100, with prices in China's pilot markets generally well below the global average. Reviewing the development of EU carbon emission trading system (EU-ETS), the quota supply mechanism has a significant impact on carbon price. Eu-ets is the world's first major carbon emissions trading market, covering about 40% of THE EU's greenhouse gas emissions, and has developed in four stages.

In the first phase (2005-2007), the price plummeted to 0.01 euro/ton due to oversupply and the inability of phase 1 EUA to be used across phases.

During the second phase (2008-2012), there was a large supply of quotas and the impact of CERs caused the price to continue to fall below €10 / tonne.

In the third stage (2013-2020), the supply gradually tightened, and the carbon price recovered significantly after 2018. The main measures included the linear reduction of quota by 1.74% annually. The proportion of auction increased year by year, 100% auction in the electric power industry, and the proportion of free manufacturing decreased from 80% to 30% year by year; Restrictions on credit credits have been strengthened. Since 2013, the European Union has required CDMS to come only from the world's least developed countries. The Market Stability Reserve Facility (MSR) was officially launched in early 2019, with 24% of the remaining quota from 2019 to 2023 put into MSR to reduce supply.

In the fourth phase (2021-2030), the quota reduction will be further increased.As supply continues to shrink, the EU carbon price has risen sharply to more than 50 euros per tonne since the beginning of 2021.

Carbon trading will accelerate the optimization of the competitive landscape in energy-intensive industries, and energy efficiency leaders will benefit

From pilot to nationwide, China officially launched the national carbon trading market in the power generation industry in July.Since 2013, China has successively established pilot carbon emission markets in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen, which have achieved remarkable results in controlling the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions in the region. Since 2020, the establishment of related policies to accelerate the national carbon emissions trading system, July 16, 2021, the national carbon emissions trading market is launched, the initial phase involves only the power industry, is expected to power generation, petrochemical industry, chemical industry, building materials, steel, non-ferrous, papermaking, aviation, etc the eight key industries will be gradually incorporated into the national carbon trading market.

Carbon trading will accelerate the optimization of the competitive landscape in energy-intensive industries, and energy efficiency leaders will benefit.According to the Notice on Strengthening the Management of Enterprise Greenhouse Gas Emission Reporting issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in March 2021, the approval of the 2019-2020 quota of key emitters in the power generation industry should be completed by September 30, 2021, and the collection and implementation of the quota should be completed by December 31, 2021. The allocation of quotas for 2019-2020 will be based on the base value method, and the total quota amount will be determined from bottom to top, and all quotas will be allocated free of charge.

The difference between the quota and actual emissions data constitutes a carbon asset or compliance gap.For electricity generation of greenhouse gas emissions actual situation, mainly through the access and computing power, power supply, heat supply, heat supply than (gas), the power supply coal consumption (gas), heating coal consumption and heat power supply carbon intensity, carbon intensity, operation hours and coefficient of load (output) production information and data, determine the emission factor, and regularly report emissions data, And then according to the result of the approval to complete the quota settlement and performance obligations.

Carbon trading will directly affect the profits of energy-intensive industries.Taking the electric power industry as an example, based on the assumption that the revenue per kilowatt hour is 0.4 yuan and the gross profit rate is 10.79% in The quarter of Power and heat production and supply industry in May 2021, if the carbon price is 50 yuan/ton and the influence of heating and correction coefficient is not taken into account, If the carbon emission exceeds 25% of the base value under the scenario of the upper limit of the implementation gap, the gross profit of power generation will decrease by 25.40% at most. At the same time, low-energy high-quality units are expected to benefit from the transaction value of carbon assets, and the thickening gross profit is 10.16% when the carbon price is 50 yuan/ton and the unit carbon emission is 10% lower than the baseline value. Under the influence of carbon trading, the competitive landscape of stock capacity in energy-intensive industries will accelerate optimization, and high-quality enterprises with energy efficiency advantages will benefit from incremental gains from carbon assets.

03CCER or restart under enhanced restrictions,

Waste incineration, new energy operators will benefit

CCER is currently suspended, and additional demonstration is required for project development.China's Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) is based on China's voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction plan, which quantifies the greenhouse gas emission reduction effect of renewable energy, forestry carbon sequestration, methane utilization and other projects. From 2013 to 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission published a total of 2871 CCER approved projects, 861 projects for record, and 254 emission reduction projects for record. In March 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that applications for CCER methodology, projects, emission reduction and filing were suspended. The development process of CCER project follows the ideas of CDM, mainly including project document design, project approval, project record, project implementation and monitoring, emission reduction verification and certification, emission reduction issue and other steps.It is worth noting that the need to have additional arguments CCER project development, which brought by the project activity is relative to the baseline emissions reductions for extra, project and its emissions reductions under the condition of no extraneous CCER project support the existence of financial performance indicators, the financing channels, technology risk, market popularity and resource conditions of obstacles, Relying on the existing conditions of project owners is difficult to achieve.

The existing 254 emission reduction record projects mainly involve wind power, photovoltaic, biogas utilization and other industries, among which the emission reduction record projects of domestic waste incineration are involved in 4. Among the 2,871 projects in the current approval stage, 74 are domestic waste incineration projects. According to the recorded emission reduction information of the 4 MSW incineration projects, the unit emission reduction is 0.35-1.25 tons of CO2/MWh, and the thickness electricity income can be increased by 0.014-0.05 yuan under the assumption of 40 yuan/ton price.

The restrictions on credit offset in each pilot carbon trading market are different. CCER secondary trading is mainly conducted in Shanghai and Guangdong markets, and the transaction is mainly conducted in the form of agreement transfer. The degree of differentiation among ccers is relatively high. The suspension of CCER led to the limited supply of CCER, and the price of some transactions rose significantly recently.In 2020, the average enforceable CCER price in Shanghai carbon Market was 20.35 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 175.76%. In July 2021, guangdong CCER (performance) transaction price rose to more than 45 yuan/ton.

We calculate the annual demand for CCER performance, and estimate that the carbon emission of the power industry is about 4.650 billion tons. According to the upper limit of 5% credit offset ratio in the national carbon market, the upper limit of CCER performance demand is 233 million tons. As the registered emission reduction of 254 projects is only 51 million tons, the existing supply of CCER is seriously insufficient. However, if CCER is fully opened, there will be the risk of oversupply and impact on carbon price. Therefore, we judge that CCER will be restarted under strengthened restrictions, and existing emission reduction industries that still need subsidies are expected to gain incremental gains from carbon asset trading after the restart, mainly benefiting industries including waste incineration and new energy operators.In addition, carbon trading is expected to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of energy structure, and the value of low-carbon energy assets is upward in the medium and long term.

Under the influence of carbon trading, the competition pattern of stock capacity in energy-intensive industries will accelerate optimization, and high-quality enterprises with energy efficiency advantages will benefit from the incremental income of carbon assets, so they can focus on clean heating industry. CCER may be restarted under strengthened restrictions. The existing emission reduction industries that still need subsidies are expected to gain incremental income from carbon asset trading after CCER restarts. It is suggested to focus on waste incineration industry and new energy operation industry.Carbon trading is expected to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of energy structure, and the value of low-carbon energy assets tends to be upward in the medium and long term. Hydropower industry can be paid attention to.