新光伏资本时代来了

2020年的7月8日，老红在《光伏下午茶》的头几条，转发的是三家证券公司对光伏市场的独特看法。

2013年的5月16日，老红在写《光伏复苏期还没到 战略投资机会正在到来》的时候，只想告诉资本那时是光伏资产价格最低的时候，希望引起他们对光伏产业的更多重视。

2014年的2月17日，老红在《光伏金融创新需要集体智慧》一文中，因资本对光伏产业不够重视而大声谴责：“金融机构的懒惰和懂金融的不懂产业”。

从2013年到2020年，资本对光伏从无感到深知、从退避三舍到热烈追捧、从只会寻找价差到成立专门的“电新研究小组”，当前，资本对光伏的认知改观，让老红想到了毛老人家那句“天翻地覆慨而慷”，一个全新的光伏资本时代来了。

许多光伏人、资本人都感受到了新一轮光伏资本大潮的扑面而来：近一年，大批熟悉和不熟悉的光伏产业链中企业，先后登陆资本市场，所有懂还是不懂光伏产业的资本机构，争先恐后地冲向这个市场。上半年，光伏指数上涨 28.6%，涨幅超过上证指数19.9% 。“二季度基金重仓股名单中，13家光伏公司成为抢筹对象……总市值高达359.82亿元。”不久前的六个交易日内，光伏上市企业市值更是惊人地增加了2000亿，快速来到7月6日的12130亿高度。这些都被当做新光伏资本时代到来的重要标志。

但是，仅仅把“新光伏资本时代”定义在这个水平上的认知是浮浅的。“新光伏资本时代”不仅是指光伏资本市场的数量变化，更是指数量变化背后质的变化。

质的变化就是：光伏产业以它惊人的成绩，终于带来全社会开始认识光伏产业，带来资本重新认识光伏产业，带来资本市场对光伏产业从简单追求价差到深度挖掘价值。

是认知变化带来光伏资本市场的变化。

社会对光伏产业的看法发生了根本性的变化。过去，在制度学者的眼中，光伏产业是国家不按市场规律办事、产能严重过剩的代名词;在经济学者眼中，光伏是“两头在外”、没有独立知识产权的代名词;在环保学者眼中，光伏是电力无污染但加工严重污染的代名词。现在，光伏产业在国民经济中的地位大大提高，光伏元素已经载入建国70周年纪念邮票，成为国家名片。

资本对光伏产业的关注发生了重大的变化。2012年的时候，资本市场的管理者是禁止光伏企业在资本市场IPO融资的;2015年前，光伏产业在资本机构眼中只是小行业，没有专业研究人员，没有像样的专业研究报告。2015年以后，光伏逐步成为资本机构的重点研究方向，招聘了一批与光伏技术相关的专业人员，组建了众多电新研究小组，《光伏行业分析报告》动辄数万字。

就连光伏媒体的关注角度也在发生重大变化。从只是发布光伏行业消息，到纷纷设立光伏财经咨询部门，建立光伏上市企业指数，注重从投资角度发布行业分析。光伏媒体的数据、分析，常常成为资本机构光伏产业分析的重要内容。

支撑资本市场最重要的东西是什么?表面是钱，钱的背后是信心，信心的背后是对一个产业、企业深入的了解和认知。是资本对光伏产业的认知变化，带来投资的变化，带来“新光伏资本时代”。

美国资本市场市值前十位的企业，早就开始了高科技企业对传统企业的替代。一个国家资本市场的变化，常常代表着产业的变迁，也代表着国家的进步。2020年，伴随中国资本市场的深层次变化，科技企业开启了IPO的新高潮。中芯国际开盘最高市值高达6783亿元，寒武纪市值逼近1100亿元，蚂蚁科技将启动A+H同步上市，可能带来1.4万亿元的市场估值。中国高科技产业新资本时代的到来，必将演绎资本市场上，茅台、石油等传统企业久居市值前十位的改朝换代。

能源产业过去只是提供能源能量，能源使用量的边界就是能源资本市场的边界。光伏发电的出现，能源不再只是提供能源能量，而是提供能源生态，因为这一生态的发展看不到边界，所以带来资本市场的发展空间也看不到边界。当前，通威的市值突破了千亿，隆基的市值突破了两千亿，光伏上市企业的市值突破了万亿，新光伏资本时代已经来了，谁又能说光伏产业的未来，不会让资本市场市值的排座次再次改朝换代?On July 8, 2020, Lao Hong forwarded the unique views of the three securities companies on the photovoltaic market in the first few articles of photovoltaic afternoon tea.

On May 16, 2013, when Lao Hong was writing "photovoltaic recovery period has not yet arrived, and strategic investment opportunities are coming", he just wanted to tell the capital that it was the time when the price of photovoltaic assets was the lowest, hoping to attract them to pay more attention to the photovoltaic industry.

On February 17, 2014, in the article "photovoltaic financial innovation needs collective wisdom", Lao Hong loudly condemned "the laziness of financial institutions and those who understand finance do not understand industry" because capital does not pay enough attention to the photovoltaic industry.

From 2013 to 2020, capital has never felt deeply aware of photovoltaic, from retreat to enthusiastic pursuit, from only looking for price difference to the establishment of a special "new power research group". At present, the change in capital's cognition of photovoltaic reminds Lao Hong of Mao's sentence of "earth shaking, generous and generous", and a new era of photovoltaic capital has come.

Many photovoltaic people and capital people feel the coming of a new wave of photovoltaic capital: in recent year, a large number of familiar and unfamiliar enterprises in the photovoltaic industry chain have successively landed in the capital market. All capital institutions that understand or do not understand the photovoltaic industry rush to this market. In the first half of the year, the PV index rose by 28.6%, exceeding the Shanghai index by 19.9%. "In the list of heavy positions in the fund in the second quarter, 13 photovoltaic companies became the object of fund-raising... The total market value was as high as 35.982 billion yuan." in the six trading days not long ago, the market value of photovoltaic listed enterprises increased by 200 billion, quickly reaching the height of 1213 billion on July 6. These are regarded as an important sign of the arrival of the new photovoltaic capital era.

However, it is superficial to define the "new photovoltaic capital era" at this level. "New photovoltaic capital era" refers not only to the quantitative change of photovoltaic capital market, but also to the qualitative change behind the quantitative change.

The qualitative change is: with its amazing achievements, the photovoltaic industry has finally brought the whole society to understand the photovoltaic industry, brought capital to re understand the photovoltaic industry, and brought the capital market to the photovoltaic industry from simple pursuit of price difference to deep excavation of value.

It is the change of photovoltaic capital market brought by cognitive change.

Fundamental changes have taken place in society's view of the photovoltaic industry. In the past, in the eyes of institutional scholars, photovoltaic industry was synonymous with the country's failure to act according to the market law and serious overcapacity; In the eyes of economists, photovoltaic is synonymous with "two ends out" and no independent intellectual property rights; In the eyes of environmental protection scholars, photovoltaic is synonymous with no pollution of power but serious pollution of processing. Now, the position of photovoltaic industry in the national economy has been greatly improved. Photovoltaic elements have been included in the 70th anniversary stamps of the founding of the people's Republic of China and become the national business card.

Capital's attention to photovoltaic industry has changed significantly. In 2012, the managers of the capital market prohibited photovoltaic enterprises from financing IPO in the capital market; Before 2015, the photovoltaic industry was only a small industry in the eyes of capital institutions, without professional researchers and decent professional research reports. After 2015, photovoltaic has gradually become the key research direction of capital institutions. A group of professionals related to photovoltaic technology have been recruited, and many new power research groups have been established. The photovoltaic industry analysis report is often tens of thousands of words.

Even the attention angle of photovoltaic media is also changing significantly. From just publishing the news of photovoltaic industry to setting up photovoltaic financial consulting departments, establishing photovoltaic listed enterprise index, and paying attention to publishing industry analysis from the perspective of investment. The data and analysis of photovoltaic media often become an important content of photovoltaic industry analysis of capital institutions.

What is the most important thing to support the capital market? The surface is money. Behind money is confidence. Behind confidence is in-depth understanding and cognition of an industry and enterprise. It is the change of capital's cognition of photovoltaic industry, which brings about the change of investment and the "new photovoltaic capital era".

The top ten enterprises in the U.S. capital market have long begun to replace high-tech enterprises with traditional enterprises. The change of a country's capital market often represents the change of industry and the progress of the country. In 2020, with the deep-seated changes in China's capital market, science and technology enterprises opened a new climax of IPO. SMIC opened with a maximum market value of 678.3 billion yuan and a Cambrian market value of nearly 110 billion yuan. Ant technology will launch a + H synchronous listing, which may bring a market valuation of 1.4 trillion yuan. The arrival of the new capital era of China's high-tech industry is bound to interpret the transformation of Maotai, oil and other traditional enterprises in the capital market, which have long ranked among the top ten in market value.

In the past, the energy industry only provided energy, and the boundary of energy use is the boundary of energy capital market. With the emergence of photovoltaic power generation, energy is no longer just providing energy, but providing energy ecology. Because the development of this ecology can not see the boundary, the development space of the capital market can not see the boundary. At present, Tongwei's market value has exceeded 100 billion, Longji's market value has exceeded 200 billion, and the market value of photovoltaic listed enterprises has exceeded trillion. The new era of photovoltaic capital has come. Who can say that the future of photovoltaic industry will not change the ranking of capital market value again?